Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Hong-sik Kim (RA: Sang-hoon Lee)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 140,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Strong profit acceleration expected from 2Q onward following the 1Q earnings trough, backed by potential for annual DPS to reach KRW 3,600 and upcoming catalysts in AI RAN and 5G SA tariff revisions.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 12-Month Target Price maintained at KRW 140,000 (Based on the closing price of KRW 93,200 on May 7, 2026), reaffirmed as Sector Top Pick
- 1Q26 Results Summary:
- Consolidated Operating Profit: KRW 537.6 Billion (-5% YoY, +351% QoQ, beating market consensus of KRW 517.6 Billion)
- Mobile service revenue expanded QoQ driven by 5G net subscriber additions
- Sequential reduction in marketing expenses alongside lower labor costs (YoY/QoQ) from restructuring and declining depreciation costs
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.926 Trillion
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.909 Trillion (Reaching ~KRW 1.9 Trillion target)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.149 Trillion
- 2026E EPS: KRW 5,350 / BPS: KRW 63,269 / ROE: 8.72% / PER: 17.42x / PBR: 1.47x / EV/EBITDA: 4.48x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- 2026F DPS: KRW 3,600 (Heightened potential for annual DPS to surpass KRW 3,600)
- 2027F DPS forecast at KRW 3,800
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Earnings Trough & Accelerated Turnaround:
- Following the conclusion of post-suspension headwinds, 2Q–4Q consolidated operating profit is projected to achieve strong growth, confirming that 1Q marked the earnings bottom.
- Structural reductions in labor costs from workforce adjustments, along with stabilized marketing and depreciation expenses, drive substantive profitability improvements.
- AI RAN & National AI Project Catalysts:
- Anticipated selection for national AI projects and the initiation of AI RAN investments in 2H are expected to boost expectations for next-generation telecom service execution.
- 5G SA Transition & Tariff Revisions:
- Entry into the 5G SA era by year-end and potential discussions on tariff restructuring broaden expectations for revenue growth.
- Historical precedents during next-generation service rollouts demonstrate that dividend yield band troughs dropped to 2% and valuation multiples expanded, supporting share price upside toward KRW 140,000 (reflecting an expected dividend yield of 2.6%).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as an operator that has cleared its operational earnings trough in 1Q, transitioning into a strong 2Q–4Q profit rebound supported by post-restructuring cost discipline (lower labor and depreciation expenses) and heightened potential to reach an annual DPS of KRW 3,600, while securing next-generation service premiums through 2H AI RAN investments and prospective 5G SA tariff revisions. This perspective emphasizes that rather than focusing on near-term share price gains, attention should center on accelerating sequential earnings recovery and the valuation multiple expansion potential tied to upcoming AI and 5G SA rollouts.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that sequential profit gains deliver the ~KRW 1.9 Trillion annual operating profit target alongside the targeted KRW 3,600 full-year DPS, while tracking the outcome of national AI project selections, the actual execution of 2H AI RAN investments, and concrete regulatory discussions regarding 5G SA tariff plans by year-end. These developments can be verified via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR materials, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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