Market: KOSPI (005490)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Sung-bong Park, Seung-gyu Kim (RA)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : 740,000 KRW (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Substantial spread expansion in 3Q driven by domestic flat steel price hikes and the medium-to-long term lithium expansion roadmap unveiled at CEO Investor Day are expected to lead an earnings turnaround.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: Maintained BUY rating with a 12-month target price of 740,000 KRW (maintained), offering substantial upside potential from the current share price of 320,000 KRW.
- Key Valuation Multiples:
- 2026F: P/E 8.08x, P/B 0.42x, EV/EBITDA 6.01x, ROE 5.50%, DPS 10,000 KRW, BPS 748,101 KRW
- 2027F: P/E 8.41x, P/B 0.41x, EV/EBITDA 5.45x, ROE 5.05%, DPS 10,000 KRW, BPS 776,330 KRW
- Annual Financial Forecasts:
- 2026F: Revenue of 74.27T KRW, Operating Profit of 3.34T KRW, Pre-tax Profit of 3.18T KRW, Net Profit of 3.13T KRW (+386.09% YoY)
- 2027F: Revenue of 75.19T KRW, Operating Profit of 3.74T KRW, Pre-tax Profit of 3.04T KRW, Net Profit of 2.99T KRW
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Preview:
- Consolidated revenue is projected at 18.0T KRW (+2.6% YoY, +0.7% QoQ) and operating profit at 689.6B KRW (+13.6% YoY, -2.4% QoQ), missing market consensus of 749.5B KRW.
- Steel: Sales volume estimated at 8.21M tons (+0.5% YoY, -0.9% QoQ). Blast furnace raw material costs are expected to rise by 20,000 KRW/ton QoQ, but ASP is projected to increase by 24,000 KRW/ton, resulting in slight spread widening. Overseas steel subsidiaries expected to post stable QoQ profits.
- Affiliates & Lithium: POSCO International and POSCO Future M are expected to sustain stable operating profits, whereas the lithium business is projected to see widened losses due to high base effects from 1Q inventory valuation gain reversals.
- 3Q26 Earnings Outlook:
- Consolidated operating profit is projected to rebound sharply to 894.2B KRW (+40.0% YoY, +29.7% QoQ).
- Steel product sales volume expected to reach 8.39M tons (+1.9% YoY, +2.3% QoQ). Stable raw material input costs combined with aggressive price hikes reflecting low domestic inventories and Asian price recovery are set to drive significant spread expansion.
- Mid-to-Long Term Vision (CEO Investor Day):
- Targets established for 2033: lithium capacity of 173k tons and lithium division operating profit exceeding 1.8T KRW.
- Long-term structural price recovery anticipated due to global lithium supply shortages.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views POSCO Holdings as an industrial group set to achieve a sharp recovery in steel roll margins through aggressive product price hikes amid stable raw material costs, while unlocking medium-to-long term structural earnings growth via the lithium expansion plan presented at CEO Investor Day. This perspective places greater significance on the 3Q margin inflection and the 2033 lithium capacity scaling targets over short-term 2Q profit dilution caused by inventory base effects in the lithium segment.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, investors should monitor the realization of 3Q steel spread expansion via flat product price increases, the trajectory of quarterly profit normalization in the lithium business as base effects fade, and the milestone-by-milestone execution of the long-term lithium capacity target (173k tons by 2033). These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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