Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Hong-sik Kim (RA: Sang-hoon Lee)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 55,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Near-term earnings drag and dividend overhang from 4Q25 voluntary retirement one-off labor costs (~KRW 200 Billion) alongside data center one-offs, while strong FY2026 operational turnaround (OP KRW 1.87 Trillion) suggests the optimal buying window is around April/May as market dividend expectations re-anchor to realistic levels.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 12-Month Target Price maintained at KRW 55,000 (Based on the January 9, 2026 closing price of KRW 53,000)
- Investment Strategy & Timing Rationale: While strong profit growth and DPS expansion are forecasted for 2026, entry timing should be deferred to April when dividend risks are fully discounted and overly aggressive early normalization expectations adjust
- 4Q25 Earnings Forecast (Preview):
- Consolidated Operating Profit: KRW 127.8 Billion (-50% YoY, +165% QoQ, missing market consensus of KRW 199.0 Billion)
- Incurred ~KRW 200.0 Billion in one-off labor costs related to voluntary retirement alongside data center one-offs
- Wireless mobile service revenue growing QoQ following the expiration of temporary tariff discounts; SK Broadband service revenue growth continues
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.909 Trillion (+3.9% YoY)
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.872 Trillion (Sharp expansion from FY2025F KRW 1.082 Trillion)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.145 Trillion
- 2026E EPS: KRW 5,332 / BPS: KRW 58,188 / ROE: 9.48% / PER: 9.94x / PBR: 0.91x / EV/EBITDA: 3.18x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- Under the policy of distributing >50% of consolidated net profit, without a sharp payout ratio hike, 4Q25 DPS is estimated at KRW 340 and 1Q26 DPS at ~KRW 600
- Projected FY2026 DPS: KRW 2,600 (Yields ~5% at current share prices)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q Earnings Contraction & Voluntary Retirement Severance Impact:
- Following 3Q tariff relief discounts and incident expenses, 4Q operating profit faces unavoidable pressure from ~KRW 200 Billion in one-off labor costs related to voluntary retirement and data center one-offs.
- 2026 Earnings Turnaround & Sequential DPS Expansion:
- Cybersecurity financial losses are essentially fully absorbed in 2025.
- In contrast to 2025, 2026 will see steep operational profit recovery and sequential quarterly DPS expansion toward an annual KRW 2,600.
- Strategy: Enter When Market Expectations Reach the Trough:
- Valuation is inexpensive at 2026E PBR 0.9x, PER 10x, and a 5% expected dividend yield.
- However, aggressive near-term dividend expectations require caution; the optimal risk-reward entry window is April–May when 1Q results and 1Q DPS (~KRW 600) are officially announced and market expectations align with reality.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as an operator absorbing its earnings trough in 4Q25 due to ~KRW 200 Billion in one-off labor costs related to voluntary retirement (alongside data center one-offs), but structurally poised for an operating profit rebound to KRW 1.87 Trillion and sequential quarterly DPS growth (reaching KRW 2,600) in 2026. Treating inexpensive valuations (2026E PER 10x, PBR 0.9x, 5% dividend yield) as fundamental downside protection, the analyst advises waiting until April–May to initiate aggressive buying, allowing the market to digest near-term dividend moderation (4Q25 DPS KRW 340, 1Q26 DPS ~KRW 600) and fully reset expectations.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that 4Q results formalize the clearance of retirement one-offs, tracking quarterly mobile revenue growth and SK Broadband service gains to validate the FY2026 KRW 1.87 Trillion operating profit turnaround, and monitoring the declaration of 1Q26 DPS (~KRW 600) during April–May to confirm the path toward the full-year KRW 2,600 DPS target. These developments can be monitored via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR presentations, and periodic DART statutory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
