Brokerage : Yuanta Securities Korea
Analyst : Gil-hyun Baik
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 172,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Full-year 2026 operating profit is projected to reach KRW 132.86T alongside 1Q26 operating profit of KRW 26.7T (+33.5% QoQ), supported by record 4Q25 preliminary earnings driven by memory price surges and ongoing DRAM/NAND ASP strength.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Target Price upgraded to KRW 172,000 (Previous KRW 150,000; 24% upside potential based on the January 8, 2026 closing price of KRW 138,800)
- Valuation Methodology: Applied a Target PBR of 1.99x to 2026–2027 average estimated BPS
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 7.8x, P/B 1.8x, ROE 22.3%, EV/EBITDA 4.2x, Dividend Yield 2.72%
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): Explicit per-share BPS/EPS figures omitted in summary tables (Controlling net profit estimated at KRW 105.92T)
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 332.77T, Operating Profit KRW 43.55T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 41.36T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 473.71T, Operating Profit KRW 132.86T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 105.92T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q25 Preliminary Earnings Review (Record Quarterly Performance):
- Preliminary Revenue of KRW 93.0T (+22.7% YoY, +8.1% QoQ) and Operating Profit of KRW 20.02T (KRW 20.2T cited in text, OPM 21.5%, +208.4% YoY, +64.6% QoQ)
- Memory Price Surges: While shipment volumes aligned with guidance, sharp ASP gains in DRAM (+38.0% QoQ) and NAND (+29.0% QoQ) drove substantial profit expansion
- Segment Specifics: Ongoing losses in LSI/Foundry (KRW 0.9T operating loss) kept results slightly below the high end of 1M market consensus (KRW 21.7T); SDC delivered solid profit of KRW 1.2T (OPM 15.0%, +30.9% YoY, +2.5% QoQ) on North American holiday set demand
- 1Q26 Earnings Outlook (Operating Profit of KRW 26.7T):
- Projected Revenue of KRW 112.4T (+42.1% YoY, +20.9% QoQ) and Operating Profit of KRW 26.7T (OPM 23.8%, +299.7% YoY, +33.5% QoQ), beating 1M consensus (Revenue KRW 101.8T, Operating Profit KRW 24.6T)
- DRAM: Node migration to 1c nm limits shipment growth (+1.0% QoQ), but ASP increases (+15.0% QoQ) continue to lead profitability
- NAND: Simultaneous growth in shipments (+7.0% QoQ) and ASP (+20.0% QoQ) expected
- Memory Price Cycle Longevity:
- Persistent high-spec and high-density demand centered on server applications
- Additional demand from mobile and PC client inventory restocking beyond 1H26 projected to prolong the pricing up-cycle
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as an enterprise maximizing memory profit momentum toward KRW 26.7T in 1Q26 operating profit (+33.5% QoQ) and KRW 132.86T for full-year 2026, driven by continuous DRAM/NAND price increases and record 4Q25 preliminary earnings, despite ongoing operating losses of KRW 0.9T in the non-memory (LSI/Foundry) division. This perspective places primary emphasis on the longevity of the memory pricing cycle fueled by high-density server demand and upcoming consumer IT inventory restocking, rather than near-term non-memory headwinds.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether realized 1Q consolidated operating profit (KRW 26.7T) and DRAM (+15% QoQ) / NAND (+20% QoQ) ASP increases meet forecasts, whether mobile and PC client inventory restocking sustains pricing momentum into the second half of the year, and whether non-memory operating losses begin to narrow. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
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