Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Eugene Investment & Securities
Analyst : Hyun-young Lee
Investment Rating : HOLD (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 85,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Despite fundamental earnings turnaround and Anthropic equity recognition, near-term risk-reward remains unfavorable due to excessive equity valuation premiums already priced into the shares.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: HOLD maintained, Target Price upgraded to KRW 85,000 (from KRW 73,000; based on the April 10, 2026 closing price of KRW 93,000)
- Valuation Breakdown & Rationale:
- Target price revised upward to reflect updated valuation methodologies and Anthropic equity value
- Assuming core telecom operations are valued at KRW 14–17 Trillion (Target Multiple of 11–13x on KRW 1.3 Trillion net profit), current share prices implicitly bake in KRW 3–6 Trillion for the Anthropic stake
- Fair value of SKT’s actual holding (0.3% stake as of end-December 2025, based on the Feb 2026 valuation of $380 Billion) is estimated at only ~KRW 1.5–1.7 Trillion, resulting in an unfavorable near-term risk-reward profile
- 1Q26 Earnings Forecast (Preview):
- Consolidated Revenue: KRW 4.427 Trillion (-0.6% YoY)
- Consolidated Operating Profit: KRW 508.6 Billion (-10.4% YoY, meeting consensus)
- SK Broadband Operating Profit: KRW 115.1 Billion (+20% YoY, profit contribution expanding to 23%)
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.619 Trillion (+3.0% YoY)
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.882 Trillion (+75.3% YoY, returning to pre-incident baseline)
- Annual Net Profit: KRW 1.252 Trillion
- 2026E EPS: KRW 5,943 / BPS: KRW 59,485 / ROE: 9.9% / PER: 15.6x / PBR: 1.6x / EV/EBITDA: 5.2x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- Resumption of quarterly dividends anticipated after suspensions in 2H25
- Capital reduction dividend (tax-exempt) scheduled starting from the 4Q26 year-end payout
- 2026E dividend yield of 3.8% (converging with Korea’s 10-year Treasury yield of 3.7%, offering limited relative yield spread)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Core Operational Turnaround & Cost Discipline:
- Mitigated security-related subscriber churn via competitor penalty fee waiver benefits.
- Sales commissions expected to decline following a 1H peak; labor cost savings from the voluntary retirement of ~400 employees (SKT+SKB combined) begin to materialize.
- SK Broadband & Data Center Execution:
- High-speed internet additions and the consolidation of the Pangyo data center drive subsidiary earnings.
- Further profit contributions anticipated as AI Data Centers (Ulsan and Guro) and subsea cable projects reach full commercial operation.
- Anthropic Stake Trading Dynamics:
- Surge in Anthropic’s ARR (tripling in 3 months) and strong reception for new AI models catalyzed the recent stock rally.
- While near-term valuations look stretched, a medium-term “call option” approach—where core business value provides downside support while Anthropic provides upside optionality—remains viable (suggests monitoring the upper KRW 70,000s to lower KRW 80,000s support band for event-driven trading).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as an operator successfully recovering its pre-incident KRW 1.88 Trillion operating profit capability and dividend structure (including 4Q26 tax-exempt payouts) through labor efficiencies and SK Broadband’s data center momentum, while acting as a “call option” proxy on global AI leader Anthropic. However, because the current market cap prices in KRW 3–6 Trillion for the stake compared to its estimated fair value of KRW 1.5–1.7 Trillion, the perspective recommends a disciplined trading strategy centered on support levels in the upper KRW 70,000s to lower KRW 80,000s around key Anthropic development milestones rather than chasing near-term rallies.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include tracking whether labor savings and commission discipline deliver the projected FY2026 operating profit of KRW 1.88 Trillion alongside quarterly dividend resumptions, confirming the execution schedule of SK Broadband’s Ulsan and Guro AIDC facilities, and monitoring updates to Anthropic’s ARR metrics and subsequent valuation rounds. These developments can be verified via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR presentations, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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