Brokerage : DS Investment & Securities
Analyst : Surim Lee
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 530,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Extended medium-to-long term earnings visibility backed by HBM4 competitiveness, persistent memory supply shortages, and long-term agreements (LTAs) covering 60–70% of total capacity
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Stock & Valuation Indicators
- Current Price (as of 2026-07-29): KRW 208,500
- Target Price: KRW 530,000 (Upside: 154.2%)
- Investment Rating: BUY (Maintained)
- Market Capitalization: KRW 1,218.95 Trillion
- Key Financial Forecasts (K-IFRS Consolidated)
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 32.73 Trillion (OPM 10.9%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62 Trillion, EPS KRW 5,433
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 43.60 Trillion (OPM 13.1%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 43.56 Trillion, EPS KRW 7,065
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 745.13 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 391.85 Trillion (OPM 52.6%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 346.10 Trillion, EPS KRW 57,775 (P/E 3.6x, P/B 1.9x)
- 2027(F): Revenue KRW 1,037.77 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 639.58 Trillion (OPM 61.6%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 561.70 Trillion, EPS KRW 95,058 (P/E 2.2x, P/B 1.1x)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Results & Divisional Breakdown
- Consolidated Q2 Revenue stood at KRW 171.5 Trillion (+28% QoQ) and Operating Profit reached KRW 89.5 Trillion (+56% QoQ, OPM 52%), factoring in an estimated KRW 17.6 Trillion in performance bonus provisions
- Q2 Capex execution totaled KRW 16.8 Trillion (DS KRW 15.4 Trillion, SDC KRW 0.7 Trillion)
- Estimated DS Operating Profit: DRAM KRW 69.5 Trillion (OPM 82%), NAND KRW 22.5 Trillion (OPM 63%), LSI/Foundry -KRW 2.8 Trillion
- Bit Growth & Pricing (QoQ): DRAM Bit Growth +10% / ASP +44%, NAND Bit Growth +2% / ASP +67%
- 3Q26 Outlook & Upward Estimate Revisions
- Q3 consolidated Operating Profit forecast raised to KRW 115.4 Trillion (+29% QoQ, OPM 54%)
- DS Operating Profit of KRW 115 Trillion (DRAM OPM 83%, NAND OPM 66%) expected to drive overall earnings despite widening losses in DX (-KRW 1.3 Trillion)
- Upward-revised Q3 Bit Growth assumptions: DRAM 5%, NAND 7%
- Supply-Demand Outlook & Foundry/LTA Strategy
- Memory supply shortages expected to intensify in 2027 and persist through 2028, with demand visibility extending through 2029 via LTAs
- Strategy to maintain long-term agreements covering 60–70% of total capacity, aligned with mid-to-long term expansion roadmaps
- Foundry division anticipating operational ramp-up via 4nm-based LPU production and HBM base dies starting 2H, alongside potential Taylor Fab expansion beyond Phase 2
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates Samsung Electronics as a business securing structural mid-to-long term earnings visibility through 2029 by locking in 60–70% of total capacity under LTAs and leveraging enhanced HBM4 competitiveness amidst tight industry supply. Rather than focusing on near-term DX cost pressures or delayed foundry breakeven timing, this perspective places greater weight on durable DRAM/NAND ASP strength and accelerated earnings growth driven by projected supply shortages in 2027 and 2028.
To verify whether this investment thesis holds going forward, key tracking points include whether the DS division achieves the projected Q3 operating profit of KRW 115 Trillion with upward-revised bit growth, whether the 60–70% LTA capacity coverage is successfully maintained, and whether the 2H ramp-up of 4nm LPUs and HBM base dies translates into sequential operational improvements in the foundry segment. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic regulatory filings.
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