Brokerage : Shinhan Securities
Analyst : Minyong Eom, Seokhyeon Yoon
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 570,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Keytruda SC April sales reach KRW 123.5 Billion post-J-code rollout, securing trillion-KRW annualized revenue visibility, backed by Biogen’s mid-single digit royalty clarity and early June PTAB PGR catalysts.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price KRW 570,000 (Maintained) (Earnings forecasts and valuation multiples upgraded; upside potential of 67.4% based on the May 8, 2026 closing price of KRW 340,500)
- Valuation & Target Price Rationale: Halozyme is ineligible to file PGR against Alteogen’s US patents, and no legal basis exists indicating ALT-B4 infringes Halozyme’s IP or is subject to invalidation. A favorable patent invalidation decision in early June PGR is expected to drive a major turnaround.
- Market Data: Market Cap KRW 18.23 Trillion / Shares Outstanding 53.5 Million (Floating Shares 79.6%) / 52-Week High KRW 559,000, Low KRW 317,500 / 60-Day Average Trading Value KRW 129.56 Billion / Foreign Ownership 14.2% / Major Shareholders: Soonjae Park and 4 affiliates 20.4%, Inwoo Hyung and 2 affiliates 5.1%
- Annual Financial Forecast (Shinhan Securities Estimates):
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 477.9 Billion, Operating Profit KRW 316.6 Billion (OPM 66.2%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 329.9 Billion, PER 55.7x, PBR 24.5x, ROE 55.2%, EV/EBITDA 54.7x, Dividend Yield 0.1%
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 854.9 Billion, Operating Profit KRW 565.3 Billion (OPM 66.1%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 525.0 Billion, PER 35.0x, PBR 14.7x, ROE 52.6%, EV/EBITDA 30.2x, Dividend Yield 0.2%
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 1.34 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 918.3 Billion (OPM 68.4%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 781.5 Billion, PER 23.5x, PBR 9.2x, ROE 48.3%, EV/EBITDA 17.9x, Dividend Yield 0.2%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Provisional Earnings & Rapid Keytruda SC Adoption:
- 1Q26 provisional revenue reached KRW 71.6 Billion and operating profit came in at KRW 39.3 Billion (OPM 54.9%), tracking closely with consensus estimates (Revenue KRW 71.82 Billion, OP KRW 40.75 Billion). Net profit totaled KRW 71.7 Billion, bolstered by derivative valuation gains, cash interest income, and USD FX gains.
- In April, following US permanent J-code implementation, Keytruda SC generated ~KRW 123.5 Billion in its first month, establishing annual multi-trillion KRW run-rate visibility. If current adoption continues, achieving a 30%–40% conversion rate during 2027–2028 is well within reach, with commercial sales milestones set to begin in Q2 2026.
- Global Partner Commercialization Roadmaps & Royalty Clarity:
- Biogen’s regulatory filings officially confirmed mid-single digit royalty structures, setting a positive benchmark for upcoming partner terms.
- Sanofi’s (estimated) Dupixent (2025 global revenue KRW 25 Trillion) is preparing for 2031 patent expiration by completing Phase 1 in H1 and advancing directly to Phase 3 in H2 without waiting for Phase 1 final readouts (targeting 2029 launch).
- Major partners including Sandoz, Biogen, GSK, AstraZeneca, and Daiichi Sankyo are expected to pursue commercialization around 2029–2030, supporting potential milestone inflows through 2028 alongside Keytruda SC volume growth.
- Perspective on Early June PTAB PGR Outcome:
- Even if Halozyme’s MDASE patent is not invalidated in the early June PGR written decision, it will have no direct legal impact on Alteogen’s subcutaneous partnerships or Keytruda SC sales. Merck petitioned for invalidation due to Halozyme’s overly broad patent scope; non-invalidation does not establish patent infringement.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Alteogen as benefiting from accelerating Keytruda SC commercialization and favorable licensing economics, supported by 1Q26 operating margins of 54.9% and Keytruda SC generating over KRW 120 Billion in its first post-J-code month. The overarching perspective prioritizes validated mid-single digit royalty terms from Biogen, commercialization timelines targeted around 2029–2030 across global partners (Sanofi, GSK, AZ, Daiichi Sankyo), and the anticipated inflow of Keytruda SC sales milestones in Q2 2026 over temporary supply-demand headwinds tied to patent litigation anxiety.
To verify whether this investment thesis progresses as expected, investors should primarily monitor the final written PGR decision by the US PTAB in early June, quarterly recognition of Keytruda SC commercial sales milestones starting from Q2 2026, monthly prescription conversion rates tracking toward the 30%–40% medium-term target, and the formal Phase 3 initiation for Sanofi’s Dupixent SC in H2. These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, regulatory filings on DART/KRX, and global partner pipeline disclosures.
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