Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Un-ho Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 180,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Full-year 2026 operating profit is projected to reach KRW 151.3T, supported by sustained memory ASP hikes from AI investments and meaningful market share gains expected in HBM4, lifting the target price by 16.1% to KRW 180,000.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Target Price upgraded by 16.1% to KRW 180,000 (Previous KRW 155,000; current price as of January 8, 2026: KRW 138,800)
- Valuation Methodology: Applied a Target P/B of 2.3x to 2026 estimated BPS of KRW 78,295
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 6.9x, P/B 1.8x, ROE 29.0%, EV/EBITDA 3.9x, Dividend Yield (2025F) 2.9%
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 20,346 (YoY +219.8%, raised from previous estimate of KRW 18,026), BPS KRW 78,295
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 332.73T, Operating Profit KRW 43.88T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 42.90T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 425.53T, Operating Profit KRW 151.28T (OPM 35.5%, YoY +244.8%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 137.04T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 472.76T, Operating Profit KRW 181.91T (OPM 38.5%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 165.84T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q25 Preliminary Earnings Review:
- Preliminary Revenue of KRW 93T (+8.0% QoQ) and Operating Profit of KRW 20.3T (+67.3% QoQ)
- DS-Driven Growth: Consolidated operating profit increased by KRW 8T QoQ, led by a KRW 10T QoQ increase in the DS division
- Pricing & Shipments: Results driven by pricing gains from DRAM/SSD demand and expanding HBM volumes; DRAM bit shipments grew in the low single digits while NAND fell 10% QoQ, but ASP increases for both DRAM and NAND outpaced previous expectations
- Downstream Headwinds: MX missed estimates substantially due to component cost inflation from higher memory prices; VD/CE recorded large operating deficits impacted by sluggish durable goods consumption, intense competition, and cost pressures
- 2026 Memory Dynamics & HBM4 Outlook:
- Expanding AI investments are expected to sustain price increases across DRAM and NAND product lines
- Concerns surrounding HBM competitiveness are projected to ease significantly in 2026, with the company anticipated to secure meaningful market share in the HBM4 generation
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as an enterprise achieving KRW 151.3T in 2026 operating profit—driven by the DS division as DRAM and SSD price surges lead earnings growth—despite margin contraction in mobile (MX) and consumer electronics (VD/CE) caused by higher component costs. This perspective places primary emphasis on the continuation of the AI-driven memory pricing up-cycle and the easing of competitive concerns through meaningful market share gains in HBM4, rather than near-term margin deterioration in finished consumer goods.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether full-year DRAM/NAND ASP strength delivers projected consolidated operating profit (KRW 151.28T), whether meaningful customer market share is secured in HBM4 to alleviate market concerns, and whether downstream set divisions stabilize cost structures and reduce operating losses. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR materials, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
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