Brokerage : Shinhan Securities
Analyst : Caleb Kim (Senior Research Analyst), Hyesu Song (Research Analyst)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 270,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Operating leverage driven by industry-leading capacity amid tight supply, combined with rebounding HBM market share across AI accelerators and visible revenue from new applications, is projected to sustain strong earnings expansion.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Target Price upgraded by 17.4% to KRW 270,000 (45.0% upside potential based on the April 3, 2026 closing price of KRW 186,200)
- Valuation Methodology: Applied a target P/B of 2.2x to the 12-month forward BPS of KRW 121,860
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 5.2x, P/B 1.9x, ROE 44.4%, EV/EBITDA 3.2x, Dividend Yield (DY) 0.9%
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.26T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 595.75T (KRW 595.8T in text, YoY +78.6%), Operating Profit KRW 264.05T (KRW 264.0T in text, YoY +506.3%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 239.31T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 698.67T, Operating Profit KRW 354.70T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 319.35T
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 738.44T, Operating Profit KRW 362.64T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 326.46T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Preview:
- Revenue projected at KRW 124.9T (+33.1% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 44.2T (+120.6% QoQ), beating consensus (Revenue KRW 117.1T, Operating Profit KRW 38.1T)
- Operating Profit by Segment: Semiconductor KRW 41.3T (DRAM KRW 33.4T, NAND KRW 9.2T, Non-Memory loss of KRW 1.2T), Mobile KRW 2.1T, SDC (Display) KRW 0.4T, Home Appliances KRW 0.1T, Harman KRW 0.2T
- Pricing & Shipments: DRAM ASP +66% and NAND ASP +69% expected; bit growth estimated at DRAM +0.4% and NAND +3.4%
- Non-Memory: Operating loss expected to widen temporarily due to cost burdens related to utilization recovery and advanced node transition
- 2026 Growth Catalysts & Key Drivers:
- Capacity Leadership: Largest DRAM and NAND capacity under severe supply constraints enables peer-outperforming leverage; fastest 1c DRAM ramp timeline among peer group
- High-Value Memory & New Applications: Market share recovery in HBM for accelerators (ASIC, GPU), with visible revenue contributions from new applications such as So-CAMM and HBM4
- Offsetting Non-Memory Softness: Higher-than-expected memory ASP gains fully offset margin softness in finished-goods (Set) and non-memory divisions
- Valuation, Geopolitics & Shareholder Returns:
- Earnings momentum expected to re-emerge as geopolitical uncertainties ease, with potential upside from enhanced shareholder return policies amid cyclical strength
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a primary leverage beneficiary capable of maximizing operational gains during memory upcycles via industry-leading capacity and the fastest 1c DRAM expansion timeline, despite finished-goods cost burdens and non-memory operational expenses. This perspective places decisive weight on strong memory pricing elasticity that far outweighs non-memory losses, while emphasizing growth opportunities from HBM share recovery across AI accelerators and early commercialization of new applications.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether DRAM and NAND price elasticity sustains projected levels, whether market share recovery in accelerator (ASIC/GPU) HBM and sales of new applications such as So-CAMM and HBM4 become visible, and whether strengthened shareholder return policies materialize alongside cyclical earnings growth. These factors can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, regulatory disclosures, and periodic financial reports.
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