Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Heemin Heo
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 240,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Downward valuation of ABL301 due to Sanofi’s clinical timeline adjustment offset by upgraded ABL001 pricing potential, Q1 Phase 3 readouts, and intact Grabody B platform validity
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Rating BUY (Maintain), Target Price KRW 240,000 (Maintain), Current Price KRW 197,700 (As of Jan 30, 2026)
- Pipeline Valuation Adjustments:
- ABL301: Value revised downward from KRW 2.3 Trillion to KRW 1.1 Trillion, reflecting clinical delays and deferred launch expectations (from 2030 to 2033).
- ABL001 (Tovecimig): Market value assumption raised following Compass’s JPM presentation (drug price assumption revised upward from USD 22k to USD 66k), preserving the overall target price of KRW 240,000.
- Financial Forecasts & Historicals (Separate Financials):
- 2023: Revenue KRW 65.5 Billion, Operating Profit KRW -2.6 Billion, EBITDA KRW 0.0 Billion, Pre-tax Profit KRW -2.6 Billion, Net Profit KRW -2.6 Billion, Controlling Interest Net Profit KRW -2.6 Billion, EPS KRW -55, PBR 15.90x
- 2024: Revenue KRW 33.4 Billion, Operating Profit KRW -59.4 Billion, EBITDA KRW -57.0 Billion, Pre-tax Profit KRW -55.5 Billion, Net Profit KRW -55.5 Billion, Controlling Interest Net Profit KRW -55.5 Billion, EPS KRW -1,094, PBR 9.66x
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 132.9 Billion, Operating Profit KRW 13.0 Billion (OP Margin 9.8%), EBITDA KRW 15.3 Billion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 10.9 Billion, Net Profit KRW 10.4 Billion, Controlling Interest Net Profit KRW 10.4 Billion, EPS KRW 192, PER 1,043.5x, PBR 60.87x, EV/EBITDA 713.3x, ROE 6.0%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 93.1 Billion, Operating Profit KRW -31.2 Billion, EBITDA KRW -30.0 Billion, Pre-tax Profit KRW -28.6 Billion, Net Profit KRW -28.6 Billion, Controlling Interest Net Profit KRW -28.6 Billion, EPS KRW -528, PBR 71.70x
- Sanofi Out-Licensing Cumulative Milestones: USD 125 Million received out of total potential USD 1.06 Billion contract (USD 75M upfront, USD 20M GLP tox completion, USD 25M Phase 1 first dose, USD 5M manufacturing tech transfer, Phase 1 completion verified).
- Stock Metrics: KOSDAQ 1,149.44pt, Market Cap KRW 10,932.4 Billion, Outstanding Shares 55,298 Thousand shares, Foreign Ownership 14.1%, Dividend Yield (2025E) 0.0%, BPS (2025E) KRW 3,286, Major Shareholders Sang Hoon Lee & 11 affiliated parties (24.9%)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Analysis of Sanofi’s ABL301 Deprioritization:
- Sanofi listed ABL301 (SAR446159) as ‘deprioritized’ in its 4Q25 earnings presentation; this is interpreted as a strategic trial refinement to maximize clinical success in alpha-synuclein targeting rather than a defect in the Grabody B platform.
- In Phase 1 data released in September 2025, safety and dose-dependent increases in CSF concentration were demonstrated, confirming underlying platform integrity.
- Near-Term Catalysts & Industry Events:
- ABL001 (Tovecimig): Phase 2/3 trial data readout (PFS, OS) in 2L biliary tract cancer scheduled for late Q1 by partner Compass Therapeutics. Favorable data could trigger royalty monetization and boost Compass’s M&A prospects.
- Sector Milestones: MSCI index review in February and Denali’s FDA PDUFA decision on April 5 for Tividenofusp alfa (MPS II) could heighten global attention on BBB shuttle delivery technologies.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The covering analyst views ABL Bio as a resilient biotech company whose intrinsic enterprise value remains supported by the upgraded market potential of ABL001 and the verified technical validity of Grabody B, despite the valuation markdown on ABL301 following Sanofi’s timeline adjustments. This perspective prioritizes upcoming late-stage clinical data verification from ABL001 in Q1 and industry-wide regulatory validation for BBB shuttles over short-term partner trial delays.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, primary focus should be directed toward Compass Therapeutics’ Phase 2/3 clinical readout (PFS, OS) for ABL001 in late Q1, the formal clarification and Phase 2 entry timeline for ABL301 under Sanofi, and the outcome of Denali’s BBB shuttle FDA approval decision in April. These critical developments can be tracked through partner regulatory filings, medical congress presentations, and official company disclosures.
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