Brokerage : Daishin Securities
Analyst : Kahye Hong
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 2,000,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Despite temporary strike-related impacts in 3Q, full-year revenue guidance was raised to 20% on expectations of a strong 4Q recovery and new plant ramp-ups, bolstered by order momentum recovery and peptide CDMO expansion.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY rating maintained; 6-month Target Price maintained at KRW 2,000,000.
- Valuation Methodology: Derived using a DCF model (WACC 8.1%, Terminal Growth Rate 3.5%), representing a 45.0% upside potential over the share price at publication (KRW 1,379,000).
- Full-Year 2026 Forecast:
- Revenue: KRW 5.5314 trillion (+21.4% YoY)
- Operating Profit: KRW 2.4725 trillion (+19.6% YoY)
- Quarterly Performance & Estimates (KRW Billion, %):
- 2Q26 Actual (Preliminary): Revenue KRW 1,321 billion (+30.2% YoY, +5.1% QoQ), Operating Profit KRW 586 billion (+23.0% YoY, +1.0% QoQ), Net Profit KRW 434 billion (+33.7% YoY, -7.6% QoQ).
- 3Q26 Daishin Estimate: Revenue KRW 1,338 billion (+6.4% YoY, +1.3% QoQ), Operating Profit KRW 576 billion (-9.0% YoY, -1.7% QoQ), Net Profit KRW 426 billion (-14.2% YoY, -1.8% QoQ).
- 3Q26 Consensus: Revenue KRW 1,322 billion, Operating Profit KRW 600 billion, Net Profit KRW 463 billion.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Review:
- Achieved record quarterly performance with Revenue of KRW 1.3209 trillion (+30% YoY) and Operating Profit of KRW 586.4 billion (+23% YoY, OPM 44.4%, -2.7%p YoY), meeting consensus.
- Growth was supported by full utilization of Plants 1–4 and favorable FX tailwinds.
- Operating margin slightly compressed due to upfront pre-operating costs for Plant 5 and the US facility.
- A ~KRW 150 billion production disruption occurred due to a general strike in May, with minimal impact on 2Q and full reflection expected in 3Q.
- 3Q Trough & 4Q Recovery Outlook:
- Growth rate moderation in 3Q26 is unavoidable due to strike-related revenue deferrals; however, annual financial impact remains limited due to schedule rescheduling toward 4Q26 and supportive FX.
- Potential retroactive labor cost settlements following wage negotiations represent a short-term one-off cost variable.
- Entering a structural expansion phase as commercial recognition starts for Plant 5 PPQ batches and the US facility; the company officially raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance from 15–20% to 20%.
- Order Pipeline & Modality Expansion:
- Cumulative CMO order backlog stood at $21.7 billion as of 2Q26, up by $0.5 billion from end-2025.
- Following clarity on US tariff policies (April 2026), client inquiries are recovering, supporting second-half order intake momentum.
- The acquisition of PolyPeptide Group (signed July 18) is scheduled to complete and expand operations into peptide CDMO from 2027, adding structural diversification to the core antibody portfolio.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Biologics not as a company hampered by temporary 3Q strike disruptions or one-off wage negotiations, but as a premier global CDMO entering a new capacity expansion phase where Plant 5 and US facility contributions support upgraded full-year guidance alongside structural modality diversification into peptides. The perspective emphasizes the steep recovery projected for 4Q and the resumption of long-term commercial contract momentum.
To determine whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include tracking the full recovery of deferred strike batches in 4Q results, the commercial revenue contribution and margin trajectory of Plant 5 and the US facility, second-half order intake acceleration following US tariff clarification, and the closing of the PolyPeptide acquisition alongside its 2027 integration timeline. These milestones can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings on DART.
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