Brokerage : Kyobo Securities
Analyst : Heeryung Jung
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 1,900,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Full-scale revenue recognition from Plant 5 and the Rockville facility starting in 3Q is expected to drive full-year guidance toward the upper bound, while the acquisition of a peptide CDMO secures structural modality diversification.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained; Target Price raised to KRW 1,900,000.
- Valuation Methodology: Derived by applying a target EV/EBITDA of 24.5x to the 2027E EBITDA of KRW 3.4276 trillion.
- Annual Financial Forecast (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2024: Revenue KRW 3.497 trillion (-5.3% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 1.321 trillion (OPM 37.8%), Net Profit KRW 1.083 trillion, EPS KRW 15,221 (+26.3% YoY), P/E 62.3x, EV/EBITDA 35.2x, ROE 10.4%.
- 2025: Revenue KRW 4.557 trillion (+30.3% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 2.069 trillion (OPM 45.4%), Net Profit KRW 1.784 trillion, EPS KRW 26,572 (+74.6% YoY), P/E 32.5x, EV/EBITDA 28.8x, ROE 19.4%.
- 2026(E): Revenue KRW 5.434 trillion (+19.2% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 2.497 trillion (OPM 46.0%), Net Profit KRW 1.965 trillion, EPS KRW 42,438 (+59.7% YoY), P/E 26.7x, EV/EBITDA 21.3x, ROE 23.3%.
- 2027(E): Revenue KRW 6.590 trillion (+21.3% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 3.091 trillion (OPM 46.9%), Net Profit KRW 2.391 trillion, EPS KRW 51,646 (+21.7% YoY), P/E 26.2x, EV/EBITDA 17.2x, ROE 22.5%.
- 2028(E): Revenue KRW 7.097 trillion (+7.7% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 3.194 trillion (OPM 45.0%), Net Profit KRW 2.441 trillion, EPS KRW 52,729 (+2.1% YoY), P/E 26.2x, EV/EBITDA 16.2x, ROE 18.7%.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Provisional Results Review:
- Revenue reached KRW 1.3209 trillion (+30.2% YoY) and Operating Profit reached KRW 586.4 billion (+23.0% YoY, OPM 44.4%), matching consensus estimates.
- Plants 1–4 maintained full capacity utilization.
- Profitability in 2Q was temporarily diluted due to upfront expenses for Plant 5 (PPQ batch-related costs completed) and the Rockville facility (depreciation recognized; goodwill to be recognized upon asset valuation confirmation).
- Second-Half Outlook & Operational Ramp-up:
- Plant 5 entered PPQ batch production, with revenue recognition commencing in 3Q.
- Rockville facility’s 2Q production volume will also be recognized as commercial revenue from 3Q, driving QoQ profitability improvement.
- Driven by new capacity contributions, full-year 2026 revenue growth is expected to hit the upper bound of the 15–20% guidance range.
- Order Pipeline & Modality Expansion:
- First-half order moderation is viewed as quarterly timing variance rather than industry-wide contraction, with major client projects proceeding smoothly.
- Cumulative non-binding CMO orders stood at approximately $2.43 billion as of 2Q26.
- On July 18, signed an agreement to acquire Switzerland-based global peptide CDMO PolyPeptide Group (equity value ~KRW 2.7 trillion; backed by KRW 2.2 trillion in cash and cash equivalents as of end-June with various funding structures under review) to accelerate modality diversification.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Biologics not as a business constrained by upfront operational costs or short-term order variance, but as an expanding global CDMO platform leveraging its fully utilized core capacity to unlock second-half earnings momentum via Plant 5 and Rockville, while securing long-term growth vectors through peptide CDMO expansion. The perspective places greater significance on the structural inflection point of second-half top-line acceleration and modality expansion over temporary expense recognition.
To determine whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include monitoring the actual revenue contribution and margin expansion from Plant 5 and the Rockville facility starting in 3Q26, tracking the formal conversion progress of approximately $2.43 billion in non-binding orders into definitive contracts, and observing the final closing and financing structure of the PolyPeptide Group acquisition. These variables can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, investor presentations, and regulatory disclosures via DART.
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