Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Hyun-wook Lee
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 410,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Supported by 4Q25 results meeting consensus led by ESS growth, aggressive EV-to-ESS line reallocations at the North American SPE fab (3 out of 4 lines converted to ESS) and projected FY26 AMPC credits of KRW 359.1 Billion anchor the fundamental turnaround.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 410,000 (Raised from KRW 360,000)
- Market Data (As of 2026-02-02): Current Price KRW 356,000 (Upside Potential 15.2%), Market Cap KRW 29.00 Trillion, KOSPI 4,949.67pt, Shares Outstanding 82,203 Thousand, Foreign Ownership 23.6%, Dividend Yield (2025F) 0.5%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025F → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.51 Trillion → KRW 19.21 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion (Loss Continued) → KRW -227.0 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 1.93 Trillion (Turnaround)
- Pre-tax Profit: KRW -1.11 Trillion → KRW 320.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 2.48 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -957.0 Billion (Loss Continued) → KRW 234.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.93 Trillion
- EPS: KRW -12,271 → KRW 2,844 (Turnaround) → KRW 23,452
- Operating Margin (OPM): -13.0% → -1.5% → 10.0%
- ROE: -4.9% → 1.2% → 9.6%
- PER / PBR: -22.0x / 1.2x → 125.2x / 1.5x → 15.2x / 1.4x
- EV/EBITDA: 96.5x → 19.9x → 9.0x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q25 Earnings Review (Carried by ESS):
- Consolidated Results: Revenue reached KRW 3.86 Trillion (QoQ +26.4%) and Operating Loss was KRW -299.2 Billion (Loss narrowed QoQ, recognizing KRW 79.8 Billion AMPC, OPM -7.8%), in line with consensus (KRW -339.0 Billion).
- Divisional Breakdown: Mid-to-large EV cell revenue stood at KRW 1.6 Trillion (QoQ +44.1%) supported by recognized client compensations despite weak SPE JV shipments. ESS revenue rose to KRW 0.9 Trillion (QoQ +29.8%) on US demand, reaching breakeven due to legacy upgrade warranty costs. All 4Q AMPC credits (KRW 79.8 Billion) originated from ESS (NCA) shipments.
- 1Q26 Outlook & ESS-Led Growth Strategy:
- 1Q26 Outlook: Projected Revenue of KRW 3.36 Trillion and Operating Loss of KRW -227.0 Billion (Loss narrowing QoQ, recognizing KRW 80.4 Billion AMPC, OPM -6.4%).
- North American SPE Line Reallocations: Out of 4 total SPE lines (33GWh), 1 line will be dedicated to EV and 3 lines to ESS (1 NCA line at 7GWh, 2 LFP lines at 22GWh).
- Capacity & AMPC Scaling: Total global ESS manufacturing capacity is projected to reach ~42GWh by end-2026 (North America 29GWh, Ulsan 10GWh, China 3GWh). FY26 eligible AMPC shipments are forecast to expand to 7.6GWh (KRW 359.1 Billion) compared to 5.8GWh (KRW 275.1 Billion) in 2025.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a battery manufacturer effectively shielding against downstream EV slowdowns by proactively executing line reallocations at its North American joint venture (SPE, converting 3 out of 4 lines to ESS) to drive an ESS-led operational recovery. This perspective emphasizes the medium-term commercial ramp-up of new ESS lineups (SBB 1.7 NCA and SBB 2.0 LFP) and projected FY26 AMPC generation of KRW 359.1 Billion, rather than transient automotive demand friction.
To evaluate the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the execution pace of SPE line conversions to ESS (7GWh NCA and 22GWh LFP), the delivery of 7.6GWh in eligible shipments generating KRW 359.1 Billion in annual AMPC credits, and the on-schedule 4Q26 mass production of the LFP-based SBB 2.0. These operational developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly financial releases, official company IR presentations, and periodic regulatory filings.
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