Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Won-seok Jung, Jung-ha Park (RA)
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 800,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Narrowing battery operating losses alongside surging AI data center ESS demand and intensifying US regulatory curbs on Chinese batteries are set to drive long-term earnings growth, supporting a buy-on-dips trading approach.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy (Maintained), Target Price KRW 800,000 (Raised)
- Valuation Methodology: Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) combining operating value (applying 11.7x EV/EBITDA, the 2028F global peer average) and Samsung Display equity stake value
- Market Data (As of 2026-04-28): Close KRW 680,000 (Upside Potential 17.6%), Market Cap KRW 55.33 Trillion, Capital Stock KRW 416.0 Billion, Shares Outstanding 82.20 Million, Foreign Ownership 25.4%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025 → 2026E → 2027E → 2028E):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.66 Trillion → KRW 19.94 Trillion → KRW 22.97 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.998 Trillion → KRW 24.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.43 Trillion → KRW 2.26 Trillion
- Net Profit: KRW -649.0 Billion → KRW -38.0 Billion (Loss Reduced) → KRW 1.18 Trillion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.73 Trillion
- EPS: KRW -8,325 → KRW -468 → KRW 14,325 → KRW 21,058
- BPS: KRW 260,851 → KRW 269,571 → KRW 293,105 → KRW 323,362
- ROE: -3.2% → -0.2% → 5.1% → 6.8%
- PER / PBR: -x / 1.0x → -x / 2.5x → 47.5x / 2.3x → 32.3x / 2.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 293.8x → 24.4x → 15.5x → 12.1x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Review: Revenue reached KRW 3.6 Trillion (YoY +13%, QoQ -7%) and Operating Loss stood at KRW -156.0 Billion (Loss continued YoY/QoQ), beating market consensus (Revenue KRW 3.5 Trillion, Operating Loss KRW -257.6 Billion). Driven by ~KRW 80.5 Billion in AMPC recognition, favorable KRW/USD exchange rates, and reduced battery losses. Prolonged demand for legacy EV models due to OEM new-platform delays, European reallocation of Stellantis production, and OEM compensation aided results. Small batteries improved on high-end power tool and AIDC BBU demand.
- Medium- to Long-Term AIDC ESS Growth:
- Structural Drivers & US Regulatory Tailwinds: Critical power quality requirements in AI data centers elevate ESS as key infrastructure. US restrictions on Chinese ESS intensifying from 2026 provide structural market share expansion opportunities in North America.
- ESS Earnings Outlook: ESS operating profit is projected to expand significantly from ~KRW 83.0 Billion in 2025 to ~KRW 1.7 Trillion by 2028, serving as the central driver of corporate profit growth.
- Valuation & Investment Strategy: Trading at a 2028F P/E of 32.3x (reflecting a premium over the global peer average of 22.6x), near-term upside appears limited, indicating that a buy-on-dips trading approach is advisable.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a battery manufacturer that has already priced in significant EV end-market concerns, positioning itself to transform its medium- to long-term earnings power through surging AI data center power infrastructure demand and US regulatory restrictions on Chinese suppliers. This perspective highlights the explosive growth potential of the ESS division (projected to reach KRW 1.7 Trillion in operating profit by 2028) while advising a disciplined trading approach during price corrections due to its current valuation premium over global peers.
To evaluate the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include North American market share gains as US restrictions on Chinese ESS intensify from 2026, new contract wins for AIDC-dedicated BBU and large-scale ESS platforms, and the multi-year progression toward the projected KRW 1.7 Trillion in ESS operating profit by 2028. These operational milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, and periodic statutory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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