Brokerage : Kyobo Securities (Analyst: Boyoung Choi)
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 500,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Earnings momentum expected to accelerate driven by sharp price increases in commodity DRAM and NAND, the initial supply rollout of HBM4 to NVIDIA, and narrowing non-memory losses
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: Buy maintained, Target Price upgraded to KRW 500,000 (Current price KRW 334,000 as of 2026.06.30)
- Earnings Forecast Summary:
- 2024.12A: Revenue KRW 300.9T, Operating Profit KRW 32.7T, Net Profit KRW 34.5T
- 2025.12A: Revenue KRW 333.6T, Operating Profit KRW 43.6T, Net Profit KRW 45.2T
- 2026.12E: Revenue KRW 732.7T (YoY +119.6%), Operating Profit KRW 366.4T (OP margin 50.0%), Net Profit KRW 322.0T
- 2027.12E: Revenue KRW 969.2T, Operating Profit KRW 490.0T (OP margin 50.6%), Net Profit KRW 436.7T
- 2028.12E: Revenue KRW 1,024.3T, Operating Profit KRW 466.4T (OP margin 45.5%), Net Profit KRW 426.9T
- Valuation Multiples & Financial Indicators:
- EPS: 2025.12A KRW 7,241 → 2026.12E KRW 53,685 → 2027.12E KRW 72,899 → 2028.12E KRW 71,263
- PER: 2025.12A 16.6x → 2026.12E 6.0x → 2027.12E 4.4x → 2028.12E 4.5x
- PBR: 2025.12A 1.9x → 2026.12E 2.9x → 2027.12E 1.9x → 2028.12E 1.4x
- ROE: 2025.12A 10.8% → 2026.12E 54.7% → 2027.12E 45.6% → 2028.12E 31.0%
- EV/EBITDA: 2025.12A 7.7x → 2026.12E 4.5x → 2027.12E 2.9x → 2028.12E 2.5x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Preview:
- Consolidated revenue projected at KRW 176.2T (+136.4% YoY, +31.6% QoQ) and operating profit at KRW 80.3T (+1618.0% YoY, +40.4% QoQ, OPM 45.6%); record quarterly earnings expected driven by memory price surges and FX tailwinds, despite bonus provisions leading to a slight miss against market consensus (KRW 86T).
- DS Segment: Operating profit expected at KRW 77.8T (OPM 61%), driving the vast majority of company-wide profits. DRAM bit growth +6% and ASP +46% (YoY +374%); NAND bit growth +1% and ASP +58% (YoY +304%), with sharp price gains serving as the primary growth driver.
- Set & Non-Memory Segments: MX/Networks (Revenue KRW 32.6T, OPM 3.4%), VD/DA (Revenue KRW 15.1T, OPM 1.7%), Harman (Revenue KRW 3.7T, OPM 8.0%) with limited profit contribution due to seasonal weakness; Foundry and System LSI divisions continue narrowing operating losses.
- 2H26 Catalysts & Full-Year Outlook:
- Full-year 2026 revenue projected at KRW 732.7T (YoY +119.6%) and operating profit at KRW 366.4T (OPM 50.0%), supported by easing bonus provisions, further DRAM/NAND price hikes, DS OPM recovering toward 75%, and increasing HBM4 contribution in 2H.
- The company maintains its leading market share in DRAM (38%) and NAND (29%) amid structural memory supply shortages lasting through 2028 driven by the proliferation of Agentic AI.
- Initiating first HBM4 shipments to NVIDIA marks the start of an active HBM catch-up, which together with narrowing non-memory deficits is restoring overall semiconductor competitiveness.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a company expanding its corporate earnings through strong DS division growth fueled by commodity DRAM and NAND price surges, while restoring overall semiconductor competitiveness and accelerating second-half earnings momentum via the ramp-up of HBM4 supply and narrowing non-memory losses. This perspective places primary importance on the combination of ongoing price increases, entry into next-generation AI memory supply, and improving non-memory profitability, rather than temporary bonus provisions or off-season set division weakness.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key tracking points include the extent of additional ASP increases for DRAM and NAND in 2H26 alongside a recovery in DS operating margin toward 75%, the actual commencement and progress of HBM4 shipments to NVIDIA, and the pace of deficit reduction in the Foundry and System LSI divisions. These developments can be confirmed through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, periodic financial reports, and official company IR materials.
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