Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Rok-ho Kim (RA: Kyung-gyu Kim)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 300,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Full-year 2026 operating profit is revised upward to KRW 229T supported by rising DRAM/NAND ASPs and resilient 2Q pricing, alongside expanding shareholder returns and value-up potential driven by a surge in FCF.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Target Price upgraded to KRW 300,000 (Current price as of March 12, 2026: KRW 187,900)
- Valuation Methodology: Target EV/EBITDA multiple raised from 5.2x to 5.7x, reflecting memory price increases and earnings upward revisions
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 6.97x, P/B 2.12x, ROE 35.98%, EV/EBITDA 3.68x, Dividend Yield 4.3% (based on estimated DPS from projected shareholder return pool against the current price)
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 27,275 (YoY +315.52%), BPS KRW 89,614, DPS (summary table) KRW 1,668
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit KRW 33.62T
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, Net Profit KRW 44.26T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 583.25T, Operating Profit KRW 229.14T (KRW 229T cited in text), Net Profit KRW 183.72T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 675.45T, Operating Profit KRW 303.96T, Net Profit KRW 241.58T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Preview (Sequential Upward Revision):
- Revenue projected at KRW 122T and Operating Profit at KRW 38T (DRAM and NAND ASP exceeding expectations alongside favorable foreign exchange rates)
- Memory Division: Operating profit estimated at KRW 36T, accounting for approximately 95% of total company profit
- Contract & Supply Status: Selectively responding to surging Long-Term Agreement (LTA) requests in anticipation of further price upside; HBM4 supply to major clients expected to proceed smoothly
- 2026 Full-Year Upgrades & 2Q26 Trends:
- Memory division operating profit estimate raised from KRW 192T to KRW 223T, lifting full-year operating profit projection to KRW 229T
- 2Q memory pricing expected to remain solid as top two smartphone OEMs implement market share expansion strategies despite component cost pressures
- FCF Surge & Shareholder Value-Up Catalysts:
- Available capital for shareholder returns in 2026 estimated at KRW 92.5T (+389% YoY) based on FCF expansion
- Applying 2025 return proportions (58% cash dividends, 42% share repurchases) yields an estimated DPS of KRW 8,029 (or KRW 8,135 when accounting for 1H treasury share cancellations), translating to a 4.3% dividend yield
- Additional treasury share buybacks, cancellations, and corporate value-up initiatives remain potential upside drivers
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a memory-led earnings grower undergoing significant upward revisions to its 2026 operating profit (projected at KRW 229T), supported by conventional DRAM/NAND ASP hikes and solid 2Q demand from leading mobile OEMs. This perspective places primary emphasis on robust memory pricing trends, smooth execution in HBM4 supply to major customers, and enhanced shareholder return capacity powered by surging FCF, which outweighs near-term downstream cost resistance concerns.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether realized 1Q operating profit (KRW 38T) and 2Q memory pricing resilience meet upgraded estimates, whether HBM4 shipments to major clients proceed without disruption, and whether the estimated KRW 92.5T shareholder return pool translates into concrete cash dividends and treasury share cancellation programs. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
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