Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Junseo Park (park.junseo@miraeasset.com)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 2,800,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Secured supplier pricing power and upward earnings revisions driven by acute capacity cannibalization from AI MLCCs and structural shifts toward 1-year fixed LTAs
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price KRW 2,800,000 (Maintained) (Closing price KRW 1,989,000 as of July 3, 2026; upside potential 40.8%)
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecast:
- Revenue (KRW): 2024 KRW 10.294 Trillion → 2025 KRW 11.314 Trillion → 2026(E) KRW 13.535 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 16.573 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 21.835 Trillion
- Operating Profit (KRW): 2024 KRW 735.0 Billion → 2025 KRW 913.0 Billion → 2026(E) KRW 1.667 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 4.035 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 6.559 Trillion
- Operating Profit Margin (OPM): 2024 7.1% → 2025 8.1% → 2026(E) 12.3% → 2027(E) 24.3% → 2028(E) 30.0%
- Net Profit (Controlling) (KRW): 2024 KRW 679.0 Billion → 2025 KRW 706.0 Billion → 2026(E) KRW 1.400 Trillion → 2027(E) KRW 3.350 Trillion → 2028(E) KRW 5.511 Trillion
- EPS (KRW): 2024 KRW 8,752 → 2025 KRW 9,099 → 2026(E) KRW 18,040 → 2027(E) KRW 43,175 → 2028(E) KRW 71,021
- Valuation Multiples (PER / PBR / ROE):
- 2024: PER 14.1x, PBR 1.1x, ROE 8.2%
- 2025: PER 28.0x, PBR 2.3x, ROE 7.7%
- 2026(E): PER 110.3x, PBR 15.8x, ROE 13.8%
- 2027(E): PER 46.1x, PBR 12.0x, ROE 27.1%
- 2028(E): PER 28.0x, PBR 11.2x, ROE 38.3%
- 2Q 2026 Forecast (2Q26):
- Revenue: KRW 3.3 Trillion (+18.9% YoY)
- Operating Profit: KRW 414.3 Billion (+94.5% YoY, beating consensus of KRW 385.6 Billion by +7.4%)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- MLCC Segment (Capacity Cannibalization Analogous to HBM):
- Capacity Loss Dynamic: Manufacturing 1 unit of AI MLCC consumes roughly 3 units of standard MLCC capacity. Doubling layer counts to achieve 2x capacitance within identical form factors creates higher process complexity, reducing overall available unit supply as AI orders increase.
- Industry Supply Indicators: Peer book-to-bill ratios have risen to 1.3–1.5. Tightness is expected to intensify heading into 3Q26 peak IT seasonality and year-end automotive pricing negotiations.
- 1-Year LTA Structuring: Unprecedented shift from 3–6 month spot terms to 1-year contracts with fixed price and volume (P·Q fixed) for 47㎌ components. Capacity utilization reaching over 100% in 3Q26 and lean inventory (4 weeks) grant strong pricing power over incremental demand.
- FC-BGA Segment (Early Full Utilization & Mix Upgrade):
- Early full capacity utilization sustaining strong operating leverage.
- Structural product mix enhancement via server CPU substrate layering (advancing from ~20 layers to 26 layers) and embedded substrates, alongside smooth raw material cost pass-through.
- Short-Term Earnings Drivers:
- Continued realization of MLCC price hikes with increases successfully passing through to distribution channels.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electro-Mechanics not as a cyclical spot supplier vulnerable to seasonal volatility, but as an essential high-value hardware platform commanding unprecedented pricing power through severe AI MLCC capacity cannibalization (1:3 ratio) and 1-year fixed LTAs. This perspective highlights the qualitative shift in market structure, where escalating technical complexity and lean inventories establish firm supplier pricing dominance.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification checkpoints include delivering consensus-beating operating profit in 2Q26 (~KRW 414 Billion), securing additional 1-year LTAs for 47㎌ MLCCs alongside broad distribution price pass-through, reaching 100%+ capacity utilization in 3Q26, and expanding shipments of 26-layer server CPU FC-BGAs. Progress on these fronts can be tracked via upcoming quarterly earnings releases, investor relations presentations, and official regulatory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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