Brokerage : Shinhan Securities
Analyst : Hochul Lee (Minyong Eom)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 1,900,000 (Downgraded)
Core Momentum : Strong standalone business growth combined with scheduled Q3 revenue recognition from the US Rockville site and medium-to-long-term modality diversification through Songdo Plant 6.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price KRW 1,900,000 (Downgraded) (Upside potential of 21.7% based on the April 22, 2026 closing price of KRW 1,561,000)
- Valuation Methodology: Transitioned from DCF to relative EV/EBITDA valuation post-spinoff of Samsung Bioepis. Target enterprise value is derived by applying an 18% historical premium over the 1-month average 12M forward EV/EBITDA multiples of peers (Celltrion for antibody CMO comparability, ST Pharm for business model similarity).
- Market Data: Market Cap KRW 72.26 Trillion / Shares Outstanding 46.3 Million (Floating Shares 25.6%) / Foreign Ownership 12.6% / Major Shareholders: Samsung C&T and 5 affiliates 74.3%, National Pension Service 6.7%
- Annual Financial Forecast (Shinhan Securities Estimates):
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 5.45 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.50 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.92 Trillion, PER 37.6x, PBR 7.7x, ROE 22.9%, EV/EBITDA 24.8x
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 6.18 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.87 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 2.19 Trillion, PER 32.9x, PBR 6.3x, ROE 21.0%, EV/EBITDA 21.2x
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 6.92 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 3.22 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 2.48 Trillion, PER 29.1x, PBR 5.2x, ROE 19.4%, EV/EBITDA 18.4x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Q1 2026 Earnings Performance:
- Consolidated revenue reached KRW 1.26 Trillion (+26% YoY) and operating profit stood at KRW 580.8 Billion (+35% YoY, OPM 46.2%), meeting consensus estimates.
- Solid earnings momentum was sustained entirely by existing core operations even before the commercial revenue contribution from the newly acquired Rockville site begins.
- Rockville Acquisition & Guidance Upside Potential:
- The US Rockville site acquired from GSK (including 500+ local workforce and 60,000-liter capacity) will be consolidated starting in Q2, with commercial revenue recognition set to ramp up fully from Q3.
- Approximately 50% of the total capacity (two 20,000L and two 10,000L trains) is stably operating under secured commitments without initial sales gaps. At full utilization, revenue potential is projected to exceed that of domestic Plant 4-1 with identical capacity.
- Company-guided 2026 revenue growth of +15–20% YoY currently excludes Rockville contributions, pointing to high upside potential for annual guidance revisions from Q3 onward.
- Medium-to-Long-Term Growth Drivers & Modality Expansion:
- Medium-term growth will be supported by the planned groundbreaking of Songdo Plant 6 within the year, alongside expansion into next-generation modalities including ADCs, cell & gene therapies (CGT), and peptides.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Biologics as a leading global CDMO advancing its manufacturing footprint globally through the Rockville acquisition while maintaining robust underlying growth in its existing business and preparing future growth engines through Plant 6 and new modalities (ADC, CGT). While the target price was mechanically lowered due to a shift in valuation methodology (from DCF to peer EV/EBITDA multiples post-Samsung Bioepis spinoff), the overarching perspective places strategic priority on the upcoming top-line contribution from Rockville in Q3 and potential upward guidance revisions.
To verify whether this investment thesis progresses as expected, investors should primarily monitor the actual quarterly revenue recognition and capacity contracting pace at the US Rockville facility starting in Q3, official upward revisions to annual revenue guidance, and formal groundbreaking progress for Songdo Plant 6 within the year. These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, and regulatory filings on DART/KRX.
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