Brokerage : Shinhan Securities
Analyst : Jin-myung Lee, Myung-joo Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 395,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Supported by 4Q25 results meeting consensus via one-off gains and solid ESS performance, strong ESS revenue growth (+55% YoY in 2026) is projected backed by US capacity additions as the sole non-Chinese prismatic cell supplier under US decoupling policies.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 395,000 (Raised by +13% reflecting peer valuation multiple expansion)
- Market Data (As of 2026-02-02): Current Price KRW 356,000 (Upside Potential 11.0%), Market Cap KRW 28.69 Trillion, Shares Outstanding 80.6 Million (Free Float 71.9%), Foreign Ownership 23.6%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025F → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.29 Trillion → KRW 14.54 Trillion → KRW 19.21 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion (Loss Continued) → KRW -903.8 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 787.2 Billion (Turnaround)
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -649.8 Billion (Loss Continued) → KRW -256.7 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 1.25 Trillion (Turnaround)
- ROE: -3.2% → -1.2% → 5.9%
- PER / PBR: -x / 1.0x → -x / 1.4x → 23.4x / 1.4x
- EV/EBITDA: 107.3x → 31.2x → 13.9x
- Revisions: Earnings Estimates Lowered, Valuation Multiple Raised
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q25 Earnings Review (In Line with Consensus on One-offs & Solid ESS):
- Consolidated Results: Revenue of KRW 3.86 Trillion (QoQ +26.4%, YoY +2.8%) and Operating Loss of KRW -299.2 Billion (Loss narrowed QoQ but widened YoY), meeting consensus (KRW -301.4 Billion).
- Mid-to-Large Batteries: Revenue of KRW 2.7 Trillion (QoQ +43%) and Operating Loss of KRW -227.7 Billion. EV cell losses narrowed on FX tailwinds and client compensation despite sluggish shipments. ESS revenue jumped to KRW 923.5 Billion (QoQ +37%) on expanding US sales, swinging to operating profitability on AMPC recognition (KRW 79.8 Billion) despite one-off warranty expenses.
- Small Batteries & Electronic Materials: Small batteries maintained solid sales on expanding new BBU applications, while electronic materials delivered top-line and profit growth supported by seasonal peak demand.
- Expanding ESS Momentum Amid EV Sluggishness:
- US Grid ESS Acceleration: US utility ESS demand is expanding rapidly; as the sole non-Chinese prismatic cell manufacturer expanding capacity in the US, order visibility continues to improve under US non-China sourcing policies.
- 2026 Growth Driver: Full-year 2026 ESS revenue is projected to surge +55% YoY, leading overall corporate momentum.
- Medium-Term Drivers: Downside risks are well protected as EV downgrades bottom out, combined with North American ESS expansion and 2H27 all-solid-state battery commercialization expectations.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a turnaround battery manufacturer navigating subdued EV demand by capturing structural growth in the US utility ESS market, leveraging its unique positioning as the sole non-Chinese prismatic cell producer expanding manufacturing capacity in North America. This perspective emphasizes that a +55% YoY surge in full-year 2026 ESS revenue, rising AMPC generation from US facilities (projected at KRW 571.0 Billion in 2026), and long-term solid-state battery mass-production milestones (2H27) outweigh near-term macro headwinds in downstream automotive markets.
To assess the continuing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the delivery of +55% YoY growth in 2026 ESS revenue, the quarterly scaling of AMPC tax credits toward the annual target of KRW 571.0 Billion from US lines, and additional contract wins for prismatic ESS batteries from North American utility customers. These operational milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official company IR presentations, and periodic regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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