Brokerage : Shinhan Securities
Analyst : Jin-myung Lee, Myung-joo Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 580,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Surging US utility-scale ESS demand and expanding small-battery BBU applications, combined with 2H26 European EV utilization recovery and North American LFP additions, support a structural earnings turnaround.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 580,000 (Raised by +47% reflecting upward earnings revisions and target peer multiple expansion)
- Market Data (As of 2026-04-17): Current Price KRW 513,000 (Upside Potential 13.1%), Market Cap KRW 41.34 Trillion, Shares Outstanding 80.6 Million (Free Float 72.0%), Foreign Ownership 25.7%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025 → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 14.65 Trillion → KRW 19.19 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion → KRW -407.1 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 989.3 Billion (Turnaround)
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -649.5 Billion → KRW 198.4 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.50 Trillion
- ROE: -3.2% → 0.9% → 6.7%
- PER / PBR: -x / 1.0x → 212.6x / 1.9x → 28.0x / 1.8x
- EV/EBITDA: 87.1x → 23.9x → 14.5x
- Revisions: Earnings Forecast Revised Upward, Valuation Multiple Revised Upward
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Preview: Operating Loss is projected at KRW -254.5 Billion (Loss narrowing QoQ).
- Mid-to-Large Batteries: Revenue of KRW 2.2 Trillion (QoQ -19%) and Operating Loss of KRW -189.4 Billion (Loss narrowed). In EV cells, despite top-line deceleration from the expiration of 4Q client compensation, higher shipment volumes are expected to drive narrower operating losses. In ESS, solid profitability (OPM 6.5%) is anticipated backed by high factory utilization in Korea and the US alongside AMPC recognition (KRW 91.5 Billion).
- Small Batteries: Revenue up +5% QoQ with narrowed operating losses, driven by strong demand across new applications such as BBUs.
- Electronic Materials: Revenue softening (-10% QoQ) on seasonal off-peak trends, while maintaining solid operating profitability (OPM 15%).
- Second-Half Weighted Recovery & Medium-Term Drivers:
- US Grid ESS Acceleration: US cumulative utility-scale ESS installations through February surged +119% YoY. North American manufacturing capacity is scheduled to expand from NCA 7.4GWh currently by adding 22GWh of LFP capacity by 1H27, propelling sequential quarterly earnings growth.
- EV Line Recovery & Catalysts: Following EV estimate bottoming, plant utilization is expected to recover supported by European policies (IAA) and subsidies. Upside triggers include the potential Samsung Display stake monetization (book value KRW 11.2 Trillion) and all-solid-state battery mass production (2H27).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a turnaround battery manufacturer navigating past the bottom of EV earnings downgrades, entering a structural recovery path by proactively executing line conversions (EV to ESS) to capture surging US utility-scale ESS demand and new data center BBU volume. This perspective highlights the multi-year capacity buildout in North America (adding 22GWh of LFP capacity by 1H27 on top of NCA 7.4GWh) and European EV plant utilization recovery, rather than transient margin friction from expired 1Q compensation.
To evaluate the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include new order momentum aligned with rapid US utility ESS installation growth, the on-schedule commercial ramp-up of the North American LFP ESS capacity (22GWh) by 1H27 with associated AMPC generation, and the tangible rebound in European plant utilization in 2H26. These operational milestones can be tracked through upcoming quarterly financial releases, official company IR presentations, and periodic statutory filings.
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