Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Won-seok Jung
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 800,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Surging AI data center power requirements and intensifying US regulatory restrictions on Chinese batteries are set to drive North American ESS market share gains and secure medium- to long-term growth.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy (Maintained), Target Price KRW 800,000 (Maintained)
- Market Data (As of 2026-05-08): Close KRW 678,000 (Upside Potential 18.0%), Market Cap KRW 54.64 Trillion, Capital Stock KRW 416.0 Billion, Shares Outstanding 80.59 Million, Foreign Ownership 25.5%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025 → 2026F → 2027F → 2028F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.66 Trillion → KRW 19.94 Trillion → KRW 22.97 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.998 Trillion → KRW 24.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.43 Trillion → KRW 2.26 Trillion
- Net Profit: KRW -649.0 Billion → KRW -38.0 Billion (Loss Reduced) → KRW 1.18 Trillion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.73 Trillion
- EPS: KRW -8,325 → KRW -468 → KRW 14,325 → KRW 21,058
- BPS: KRW 260,851 → KRW 269,571 → KRW 293,105 → KRW 323,362
- ROE: -3.2% → -0.2% → 5.1% → 6.8%
- PER / PBR: -x / 1.0x → -x / 2.5x → 47.3x / 2.3x → 32.2x / 2.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 293.8x → 24.2x → 15.4x → 12.0x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Surging AI Data Center (AIDC) ESS Demand:
- Structural Expansion: Driven by load leveling, upstream grid protection, and power quality management, global AIDC ESS battery shipments are forecast to surge from ~12GWh in 2025 to ~61GWh in 2027 and ~272GWh by 2030.
- Rising Adoption Share: The share of AIDC applications within total global ESS demand is projected to expand rapidly from ~5% in 2025 to ~31% by 2030.
- ESS Segment Projections: ESS revenue and operating profit are projected to expand significantly from KRW 2.9 Trillion (YoY +16%) and KRW 24.8 Billion (YoY -79%) in 2025 to KRW 9.2 Trillion (YoY +15%) and KRW 1.7 Trillion (YoY +16%) by 2028, emerging as the core pillar of earnings growth.
- Industry Dynamics & Valuation Context:
- Priced-in EV Headwinds: Concerns surrounding US EV tax credit expirations and heightened competition in Europe from Chinese cell makers have largely been priced into historical share price and EPS estimate corrections since 1H23.
- Policy Tailwinds: Intensifying US regulations on Chinese ESS batteries from 2026 offer structural market share growth opportunities for Korean cell makers focusing on the US market. The stock trades at a 2028F P/E of 32.3x (reflecting a premium over the global peer average of 22.6x), indicating near-term upside may be capped and suggesting a buy-on-dips trading approach.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a battery manufacturer that has already reflected major EV end-market headwinds into its valuation, positioning itself to capture medium- to long-term growth by pivoting toward AI data center power demand and capitalizing on US trade restrictions. This perspective highlights the strategic transition where ESS evolves from basic surplus power storage into critical infrastructure for hyperscale computing, serving as the central driver of corporate earnings expansion.
To verify the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include market share gains in North America as US regulatory restrictions on Chinese ESS intensify from 2026, new contract wins with US data center customers, and the operational trajectory toward achieving the projected KRW 1.7 Trillion in ESS operating profit by 2028. These fundamental milestones can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, and periodic regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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