Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Jun-soo Kwon
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 670,000 (Lowered)
Core Momentum : While the return to quarterly operating profit opens a short-term trading window, sustained valuation re-rating requires verification of US ESS LFP production yields and a recovery in European EV market share.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 670,000 (Lowered to reflect revisions in global peer multiples)
- Market Data (As of 2026-07-30): Share Price KRW 358,500, Market Cap KRW 28.89 Trillion, Shares Outstanding 80,586 Thousand, Foreign Ownership 26.4%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025 → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.73 Trillion → KRW 20.39 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion → KRW 407.5 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 2.25 Trillion
- EBITDA: KRW 380.6 Billion → KRW 2.82 Trillion → KRW 4.72 Trillion
- Pre-tax Profit: KRW -1.36 Trillion → KRW 1.37 Trillion → KRW 2.94 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -649.5 Billion → KRW 980.4 Billion → KRW 2.10 Trillion
- EPS: KRW -8,325 → KRW 11,926 (Turnaround) → KRW 25,587
- Operating Margin (OPM): -13.0% → 2.6% → 11.0%
- ROE: -3.2% → 4.4% → 8.5%
- PER / PBR: -32.4x / 1.03x → 30.1x / 1.27x → 14.0x / 1.13x
- EV/EBITDA: 314.4x → 14.1x → 8.3x
- Net Debt-to-Equity: 38.4% → 33.6% → 27.1%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Review: Revenue reached KRW 3.8 Trillion (QoQ +5%, YoY +19%) and Operating Profit came in at KRW 203.8 Billion (Turnaround QoQ and YoY), beating the market consensus (Operating Profit KRW -27.3 Billion). Automotive batteries saw higher sales driven by expanded utilization of the SPE plant (European destination) and new vehicle launches (EV2, Ioniq9), while small batteries grew on higher BBU and high-power tool shipments. Profitability was supported by estimated one-off tariff refunds (~KRW 200.0 Billion), expanded AMPC credits, and an improved small-battery product mix.
- 3Q26 Earnings Outlook: Projected Revenue of KRW 3.9 Trillion (QoQ +6%, YoY +31%) and Operating Profit of KRW 132.1 Billion (QoQ -35%, Turnaround YoY). Automotive battery sales are expected to decline due to lower SPE EV volumes and reduced share within key European OEMs (BMW/VW). However, ESS sales are forecast to increase by +37% QoQ on rising UPS demand and deferred domestic project deliveries. Core operating profitability is expected to hold via AMPC accruals, improved utilization, and favorable product mix despite the expiration of one-off refunds.
- 2H26 Verification Factors: With valuation pressure easing (2028F P/E at 14x for Samsung SDI vs. 13x for CATL), short-term trading conditions are favorable. However, a sustainable upward trend will require clear proof of manufacturing stabilization and margin generation at the newly launched US ESS LFP line, alongside market share recovery across European OEMs.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a battery manufacturer entering a short-term trading range following a 2Q profit turnaround and valuation relief, but one that remains in an operational verification phase where the pace of earnings recovery and structural execution must be rigorously proven. This perspective places greater emphasis on confirming long-term operational milestones—specifically European EV market share defense and the successful ramp-up of new US LFP capacity—over the immediate relief of a quarterly return to black.
To track the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring variables include the yield stabilization and profitability of the US ESS LFP line scheduled to start in 2H26, market share trends within key European OEM accounts (BMW, VW), and the durability of underlying operating profits supported by AMPC and plant utilization once one-off tariff refunds subside. These factors can be monitored via upcoming quarterly financial disclosures, IR releases, and statutory regulatory filings.
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