Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Hyun-wook Lee
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 800,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Entering a fundamental earnings recovery phase following a turnaround to operating profit after seven quarters, driven by North American ESS capacity expansion and AMPC recognition.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 800,000 (Maintained)
- Market Data (As of 2026-07-30): Close KRW 358,500, Market Cap KRW 29.14 Trillion, Shares Outstanding 82,203 Thousand
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025 → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.56 Trillion → KRW 19.24 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion → KRW 352.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.76 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -649.0 Billion → KRW 1.04 Trillion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.95 Trillion
- EPS: KRW -8,325 → KRW 12,680 → KRW 23,685
- Operating Margin (OPM): -13.0% → 2.3% → 9.1%
- ROE: -3.2% → 4.7% → 8.3%
- PER / PBR: -32.4x / 1.0x → 28.3x / 1.3x → 15.1x / 1.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 87.3x → 16.3x → 9.5x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Review: Revenue reached KRW 3.77 Trillion (QoQ +5.4%) and Operating Profit stood at KRW 204.0 Billion (Turnaround QoQ, OPM 5.4%), significantly exceeding consensus estimates (Revenue KRW 3.6 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW -27.0 Billion). Even excluding a one-off tariff refund of approximately KRW 200.0 Billion, the company achieved underlying profitability, supported by increased European exports of SPE EV batteries (AMPC of KRW 107.7 Billion recognized) and narrowed losses in small batteries.
- Segment Outlook:
- ESS Segment: Total ESS manufacturing capacity is projected to reach 42GWh by end-2026 (Ulsan 10GWh, China 3GWh, North America 29GWh). Out of the 36GWh eligible for AMPC, 2026 AMPC recognition is estimated at 10.4GWh (KRW 491.4 Billion). Shipments are expected to grow sequentially driven by domestic utility-scale projects in 3Q26 and the initial rollout of LFP ESS products in 4Q26.
- EV Segment: While shipments of P6 high-nickel products for European Hyundai/Kia models (Ioniq9, EV2) began ramping up in 2Q26, lower shipments to SPE EV are expected to lead to modest softness in 2H26 EV shipments compared to 2Q26 levels.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI not merely as an EV-dependent battery supplier navigating demand headwinds, but as an energy storage player entering an operational turnaround underpinned by North American ESS capacity expansion and AMPC accruals. This perspective places primary importance on passing the sector-wide earnings trough through ESS-led structural profit contribution, rather than relying strictly on an immediate EV demand recovery.
To evaluate the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the commercial scaling and volume shipments of LFP ESS starting in 4Q26, the realization of the projected 10.4GWh in annual AMPC benefits, and the sustainability of core operating profitability independent of one-time tariff reimbursements. These operational milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR disclosures, and periodic statutory filings.
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