Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Tae-hyun Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 75,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Valuation downside protection anchored by a minimum annual DPS of KRW 2,400 and an ongoing KRW 250B share buyback program, alongside medium- to long-term growth prospects from a 5-year KRW 5T roadmap to expand AI data center capacity to 1GW
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / KRW 75,000 (Maintained)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F):
- PER: 9.6x
- PBR: 0.7x
- EV/EBITDA: 4.1x
- ROE: 7.9%
- Dividend Yield: 4.3% (4.1% based on guaranteed minimum DPS of KRW 2,400)
- Consolidated Financial Highlights & Forecasts (K-IFRS):
- 2024: Revenue KRW 26.43T, Operating Profit KRW 809.0B, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 470.0B, EPS KRW 1,850
- 2025: Revenue KRW 28.24T, Operating Profit KRW 2.47T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.73T, EPS KRW 6,869
- 2026F (Forecast): Revenue KRW 27.38T, Operating Profit KRW 1.98T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.45T, EPS KRW 5,748
- 2027F (Forecast): Revenue KRW 28.03T, Operating Profit KRW 2.28T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.61T, EPS KRW 6,396
- 2028F (Forecast): Revenue KRW 28.70T, Operating Profit KRW 2.39T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.73T, EPS KRW 6,877
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Q2 Earnings Preview & Segment Drivers:
- Consolidated Q2 revenue is estimated at KRW 6.77T (-8.8% YoY) and operating profit at KRW 589.3B (-41.9% YoY), expected to slightly miss consensus (KRW 6.89T / KRW 613.6B) due to promotional package costs and a high base effect from prior-year property sales.
- Standalone revenue is projected at KRW 4.70T (-1.6% YoY) and operating profit at KRW 375.6B (-19.9% YoY), pressured by the full-quarter impact of customer compensation programs (100GB free data monthly) and tariff down-tiering.
- Subsidiary revenue is projected at KRW 2.08T (-21.7% YoY) with operating profit of KRW 213.7B (-60.9% YoY); despite solid operations at KT Cloud and KT Estate, consolidated results contract YoY against the previous year’s Jayang-dong pre-sale profits (KRW 770.0B revenue, ~50% OPM).
- Shareholder Returns & AI Data Center Scaling:
- While customer compensation impacts are expected to linger through Q3, recent stock corrections (~20% from highs) are judged to have priced in much of the near-term concerns.
- Downside support is reinforced by a guaranteed minimum annual DPS of KRW 2,400 (4.1% dividend yield) and an ongoing KRW 250.0B share buyback program (~60% progress).
- KT plans to commit approximately KRW 5.0T over the next 5 years to scale AI data center capacity to 1GW (current: 163MW) using both direct construction and master leases, having secured a pipeline for approximately 80% of the target volume.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views KT as an enterprise navigating a transient earnings deceleration in Q2—driven by wireless promotional programs and real estate high base effects—while maintaining solid valuation downside support through a guaranteed minimum DPS of KRW 2,400 and active share buybacks, paired with a long-term growth story in AI data center capacity expansion (1GW target). This perspective emphasizes valuation resilience from pre-adjusted market pricing and the mid-to-long-term growth visibility of its KRW 5.0T data center investment over short-term cost headwinds lasting through Q3.
To verify whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key monitoring points include whether wireless ARPU and mobile service revenue begin to recover as customer compensation effects subside in Q3, the completion of the KRW 250.0B share buyback alongside the full execution of the KRW 2,400 minimum annual DPS, and the development timeline and commercial contract conversions for the secured 80% pipeline within the 1GW AI data center investment plan. Relevant developments can be tracked through upcoming Q2 earnings releases, official IR presentations, periodic corporate disclosures, and annual business reports.
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