Market: KOSPI (005490)
Brokerage : Yuanta Securities
Analyst : Hyunsoo Lee
Investment Rating : BUY (M) (Maintained)
Target Price : 440,000 KRW (Maintained)
Core Momentum : With low-priced import pressures dissipating post-anti-dumping (AD) actions and customer procurement activities resuming, product price hikes exceeding raw material inflation are projected to drive an earnings and trust recovery in 2026.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: Maintained BUY (M) rating with a target price of 440,000 KRW (maintained), offering a 48% upside potential from the current share price of 297,500 KRW.
- Key Valuation Multiples:
- 2025F: P/E 21.8x, P/B 0.4x, EV/EBITDA 6.8x, ROE 2.0%, Dividend Yield 3.94%
- 2026F: P/E 10.3x, P/B 0.4x, EV/EBITDA 5.8x, ROE 4.1%
- Annual Financial Forecasts:
- 2025F: Revenue of 68.664T KRW, Operating Profit of 2.295T KRW, Controlling Net Profit of 1.137T KRW
- 2026F: Revenue of 70.807T KRW, Operating Profit of 3.346T KRW, Controlling Net Profit of 2.349T KRW
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q25 Earnings Preview:
- Consolidated revenue is projected at 16.4T KRW (-7.8% YoY, -4.9% QoQ) and operating profit at 481.0B KRW (+404.0% YoY, -24.7% QoQ), slightly missing market consensus (503.0B KRW).
- POSCO (Standalone): Sales volume estimated to fall 9% QoQ due to weak domestic and export shipments. Despite raw material cost increases, KRW depreciation supported export ASP, expanding spreads and driving standalone operating profit to 568.0B KRW.
- Subsidiaries: POSCO E&C losses are expected to widen on work stoppages tied to the Shin-Ansan Line incident. Battery materials entities benefit from lithium price rebounds, but POSCO Future M base effects may weigh on total segment earnings (year-end one-off costs remain a key variable).
- 1H26 Steel Cost & Pricing Dynamics:
- Raw material input costs are projected to continue their upward trajectory through 1H26 following the 4Q25 rebound.
- With low-priced import pressures diminishing post-AD measures and customer procurement resuming after destocking, steel product price increases are expected to outpace raw material cost inflation.
- 2026 Normalization & Trust Recovery:
- Transitioning away from 2025 non-operational overhangs (safety incidents, HMM acquisition reviews).
- Fundamental safety improvements serve as a prerequisite for full operational recovery and market trust restoration.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views POSCO Holdings as an integrated materials enterprise passing through seasonal 4Q one-off provisions and construction work stoppages, while positioning to assert pricing power in excess of raw material cost inflation backed by anti-dumping (AD) protections and customer procurement resumption. This perspective prioritizes the structural restoration of steel roll margins under trade remedies and corporate trust rehabilitation over transient year-end one-off charges.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, investors should monitor the realization of steel product price hikes that exceed raw material cost inflation following AD measures and customer restocking, the elimination of construction-related operating losses at POSCO E&C alongside safety enhancements, and the sustained earnings normalization in battery materials driven by lithium price rebounds. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and regulatory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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