Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Hong-sik Kim (RA: Sang-hoon Lee)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 100,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Restored dividend confidence driven by 1Q tax-exempt DPS normalization (KRW 800–900), defending #1 market cap status in the telecom sector via KRW 750B+ total shareholder returns, and valuation multiple expansion led by 5G SA demonstrating its strengths during the transition toward 6G.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 12-Month Target Price maintained at KRW 100,000 (Based on the March 12, 2026 closing price of KRW 76,200), named Sector Top Pick
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.816 Trillion
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.879 Trillion (+75.1% YoY)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.150 Trillion
- 2026E EPS: KRW 5,355 / BPS: KRW 58,393 / ROE: 9.48% / PER: 14.23x / PBR: 1.30x / EV/EBITDA: 3.98x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- 1Q DPS expected to be declared within KRW 800–900 in April (confirming early dividend normalization)
- Tax-exempt dividend framework underway with an attractive expected dividend yield of 4.7% at current share prices
- Projected FY2026 DPS of KRW 3,600 (Total shareholder return budget highly likely to exceed KRW 750.0 Billion)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Pre-1Q Dividend Announcement Buying Window:
- Declaration of 1Q DPS (KRW 800–900) will reinforce market conviction in full-year dividend normalization.
- Robust inflow of dividend-seeking institutional and foreign capital expected from April onward, supported by tax-exempt payouts, a 4.7% dividend yield, and historically low foreign ownership (38.60%).
- High potential selection for national AI projects in 1H to drive fund allocation from dedicated AI institutional portfolios.
- 5G SA Catalyst & Yield Compression (Multiple Expansion):
- During the 2026–2030 transition toward 6G, 5G SA is expected to demonstrate its strengths and support valuation multiple expansion.
- Similar to historical LTE adoption phases, target dividend yields are expected to compress into the 3% range (or lower), naturally supporting share prices above KRW 100,000 based on the FY2026 KRW 3,600 DPS baseline.
- Securing Undisputed Sector #1 Market Cap via Shareholder Returns:
- Following temporary market cap concessions to KT in 2025 due to reduced total shareholder returns, SKT is poised to solidify its #1 telecom market cap leadership in 2026.
- Backed by highly visible long-term dividends and share cancellations exceeding KRW 750.0 Billion, SKT maintains the highest verifiable shareholder return budget among domestic peers.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as an operator poised to demonstrate reliable dividend recovery through its upcoming April 1Q tax-exempt DPS declaration (KRW 800–900) and reclaim undisputed sector market cap leadership from KT by deploying an industry-leading KRW 750B+ total shareholder return program. This perspective treats the 4.7% dividend yield and light foreign positioning as downside valuation buffers, while identifying sovereign AI project selection and 5G SA rollout during the transition toward 6G (driving target dividend yield compression into the 3% band) as primary catalysts for achieving the KRW 100,000 target price.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that 1Q DPS is declared in the KRW 800–900 range in April to support the annual KRW 3,600 DPS roadmap, verifying that full-year shareholder return executions (dividends plus share buybacks/cancellations) surpass KRW 750.0 Billion alongside ~KRW 1.88 Trillion in operating profit to secure #1 sector valuation, and monitoring progress on 1H national AI project selection and 5G SA commercialization milestones. These developments can be tracked via upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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