Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Daishin Securities
Analyst : Hoi-jae Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 110,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Comprehensive earnings normalization across core operations and SK Broadband following security incidents, bolstered by SIM cost reversals and tax-exempt dividend treatment.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 6-Month Target Price upgraded by +13% to KRW 110,000 (Based on the April 10, 2026 closing price of KRW 93,000)
- Valuation Methodology:
- Derived by applying a Target PER of 13x (30% premium to the 5-year peer average of 10x) to 2026E EPS of KRW 6,813
- Incorporating Anthropic’s market expected value of KRW 3.9 Trillion (assuming a post-IPO valuation of $1.0 Trillion and a ~0.3% equity stake)
- Valuation accounting adjustment: Without assuming a direct divestment post-IPO, the valuation is recognized through Other Comprehensive Income (OCI). Consequently, the previously assumed Book Value (BV) level gain of ~KRW 1.0 Trillion was deducted from net profit (current profit/loss), while ~KRW 3.9 Trillion was reflected in OCI, resulting in a conservative ~8% reduction in the EPS estimate
- 1Q26 Earnings Forecast (Preview):
- Consolidated Revenue: KRW 4.455 Trillion (~KRW 4.5 Trillion in text, +0.0% YoY, +2.9% QoQ, meeting consensus of KRW 4.402 Trillion)
- Consolidated Operating Profit: KRW 538.0 Billion (~KRW 540 Billion in text, -5.2% YoY, +351.7% QoQ, beating consensus of KRW 508.0 Billion)
- Standalone (SKT) Operating Profit: KRW 431.9 Billion (-11% YoY), SK Broadband Operating Profit: KRW 106.2 Billion (+11% YoY)
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.689 Trillion
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.951 Trillion (Upgraded from KRW 1.75 Trillion on 1Q operational improvements and SIM expense reversal assumptions, OPM 11.0%)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.463 Trillion
- 2026E EPS: KRW 6,813 / BPS: KRW 66,700 / ROE: 10.8% / PER: 13.7x / PBR: 1.4x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- Projected FY2026 DPS of KRW 3,320 and FY2027 DPS of KRW 3,000
- Effective after-tax payout restored to the FY2023–2024 baseline (KRW 3,540) due to capital reduction tax-exempt dividend treatment taking effect in 4Q26
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Operational Recovery & Easing Cost Pressures:
- Subscriber churn from the 2025 incident (~700k) was cushioned by port-in gains (+160k) during the January competitor penalty waiver window.
- FY2026 operating profit raised assuming the reversal of approximately KRW 140.0 Billion in SIM replacement expenses in 4Q26.
- Marketing (KRW 750.0 Billion, 23.8% of sales) and depreciation (KRW 560.0 Billion, 17.8% of sales) expenses both remained below post-5G historical averages.
- SK Broadband & High-Growth Data Centers:
- Solid B2B enterprise performance (Internet, IPTV, and DC) along with cost efficiencies supported double-digit operating profit growth (+11% YoY to KRW 106.2 Billion in 1Q26).
- Data Center (DC) revenue reached KRW 340.0 Billion (+42% YoY) in 2025 and is projected to expand at a 26% CAGR to KRW 1.1 Trillion by 2030, incorporating the Ulsan DC expansion.
- Anthropic Stake & Valuation Dynamics:
- Anthropic’s equity value is already largely priced into the stock, meaning future share price performance will directly track fundamental earnings delivery and dividend execution.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as an operator moving past previous incident-related shocks to rapidly restore its annual operating profit baseline to KRW 1.95 Trillion via cost discipline and prospective SIM expense reversals, while securing medium-to-long-term infrastructure growth through SK Broadband’s expanding data center footprint. With the valuation upside from Anthropic largely absorbed by the market, the perspective emphasizes that future stock re-rating will be anchored by core operational earnings turnaround and the effective payout appeal of tax-exempt dividends in 4Q26.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include tracking whether restrained marketing and depreciation expenses sustain annual consolidated operating profit near KRW 1.95 Trillion, confirming the execution of the ~KRW 140 Billion SIM replacement reversal and tax-exempt dividend rollout in 4Q26, and monitoring SK Broadband’s data center revenue trajectory toward its targeted 26% CAGR (KRW 1.1 Trillion by 2030). These milestones can be verified via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR materials, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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