Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Yuanta Securities
Analyst : Seung-woong Lee (RA: Koeun Kim)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 118,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Complete normalization of 2026 core earnings driven by cost efficiencies and subsidiary growth, coupled with a higher valuation re-rating from Anthropic’s equity stake (KRW 3.5 Trillion).
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Target Price upgraded by 18% to KRW 118,000 (from KRW 100,000; 20% upside potential from the April 17, 2026 closing price of KRW 98,300), Sector Top Pick maintained
- Target Price Methodology (SOTP):
- Core Operating Value: Derived by applying a Target EV/EBITDA of 5.7x (EBITDA expansion multiple during 2019–2020) to 12M fwd EBITDA of KRW 5.4 Trillion
- Anthropic Stake Value: Raised from KRW 2.1 Trillion to KRW 3.5 Trillion (Reflecting enterprise valuation of $800B–$1.0T and an estimated 0.3% equity stake)
- 1Q26 Earnings Forecast (Preview):
- Consolidated Revenue: KRW 4.379 Trillion (~KRW 4.4 Trillion in text, -1.7% YoY, +1.2% QoQ)
- Consolidated Operating Profit: KRW 503.0 Billion (KRW 503.4 Billion in text, -11.3% YoY, +322.6% QoQ, meeting consensus of KRW 512.8 Billion)
- Standalone (SKT) Revenue: KRW 3.1 Trillion (-2.7% YoY), Standalone Operating Profit: KRW 401.0 Billion
- SK Broadband Operating Profit: KRW 102.4 Billion
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.663 Trillion (~KRW 17.7 Trillion in text, +3.3% YoY)
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.841 Trillion (~KRW 1.8 Trillion in text, +71.6% YoY, OPM 10.4%)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.230 Trillion
- 2026E EPS: KRW 5,727 / BPS: KRW 64,888 / ROE: 9.3% / PER: 17.2x / PBR: 1.5x / EV/EBITDA: 5.5x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- Annual dividend payouts projected to recover to historical baseline levels alongside earnings recovery
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Subscriber Recovery & Operational Normalization:
- Rebounded by 160,000 handset subscribers in January driven by competitor fee waiver policies, partially offsetting previous cybersecurity-related churn.
- Low base effects from 2025 one-off costs combined with ongoing labor cost savings from the late-2025 voluntary retirement program (SKT+SKB) support a full recovery in FY2026 earnings.
- SK Broadband & Data Center Segment Expansion:
- Top-line growth driven by the Pangyo DC consolidation, floor space expansion at existing data centers, and steady performance across fixed-line segments (broadband and IPTV).
- Labor cost reductions boost SK Broadband’s operating margin contribution.
- Anthropic Valuation Upside:
- Anthropic’s enterprise valuation escalated to the $800 Billion–$1.0 Trillion range.
- SKT’s 0.3% equity holding is valued at over KRW 3.5 Trillion, with further valuation gains supported by robust global funding appetite and operational performance.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as an operator successfully restoring its historical baseline operating profit of ~KRW 1.8 Trillion and annual dividend payouts through mobile subscriber recoveries, structural labor cost reductions, and SK Broadband’s expanding data center footprint (Pangyo acquisition and floor space additions). This perspective anchors the stock’s downside with core fundamental normalization, while treating the upward revaluation of its Anthropic equity stake (KRW 3.5 Trillion) as the primary catalyst for the target price upgrade.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that handset subscriber stability and retirement-related labor savings deliver the projected FY2026 consolidated operating profit of KRW 1.84 Trillion alongside normalized annual dividend payouts, tracking continued top-line contributions from SK Broadband’s DC expansions, and monitoring Anthropic’s global funding rounds and operational milestones. These developments can be verified via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR materials, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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