Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Rok-ho Kim (RA: Kyung-gyu Kim)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 155,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Driven by 4Q25 DRAM and NAND price increases significantly outperforming previous estimates to achieve KRW 20T in operating profit, full-year 2026 earnings forecasts are projected to be revised meaningfully upward supported by expanding 1Q26 ASP gains.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 12-Month Target Price maintained at KRW 155,000 (Current price as of January 8, 2026: KRW 138,800)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 10.24x, P/B 1.89x, ROE 20.35%, EV/EBITDA 3.28x, DPS KRW 1,465
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 13,763 (YoY +135.79%), BPS KRW 74,751
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit KRW 33.62T
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 332.75T, Operating Profit KRW 41.82T, Net Profit KRW 39.36T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 438.22T, Operating Profit KRW 116.19T (KRW 116,191.4B in table), Net Profit KRW 92.70T (exceeding consensus of Revenue KRW 418.44T and Operating Profit KRW 106.70T)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q25 Preliminary Earnings Review (Consensus Beat):
- Preliminary Revenue of KRW 93T (+22.7% YoY, +8.1% QoQ) and Operating Profit of KRW 20T (+208.2% YoY, +64.3% QoQ), beating Hana’s estimate (KRW 18.3T) and market consensus (KRW 17.8T)
- Operating Profit by Division: Semiconductor KRW 17.0T (Memory KRW 17.7T, Non-memory loss of KRW 0.6T), Display KRW 1.1T, MX/NW KRW 1.7T, VD/CE loss of KRW 0.3T, Harman KRW 0.5T
- Memory-Led Performance: DRAM bit growth +5%, ASP +40% / NAND bit growth +1%, ASP +22%; shipments met expectations while ASP surges substantially exceeded previous forecasts (DRAM +31%, NAND +18%)
- Set Division Weakness: MX/NW earnings declined QoQ and YoY, missing forecasts due to shipment volume contractions, ASP declines, and rising component costs
- 2026 Outlook & Upward Revisions:
- Memory price increases in 1Q26 projected to outpace original expectations following the 4Q25 beat
- While set hardware forecasts face downward revisions from component cost inflation, memory earnings expansion is expected to more than offset downstream weaknesses
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as an enterprise where substantial earnings beats in the Semiconductor division—driven by steep DRAM (+40%) and NAND (+22%) pricing gains that outpaced forecasts—fully outweigh margin contraction in the mobile (MX) and consumer electronics divisions caused by component cost inflation. This perspective places primary emphasis on the expanding ASP momentum in 1Q26 and the strong memory profit trajectory that more than compensates for downstream hardware margin pressures.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether realized 1Q26 memory ASP increases meet expanded forecasts, whether FY26 earnings estimates are revised further upward, and whether consolidated earnings resilience holds against ongoing cost pressures in consumer hardware segments. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
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