Brokerage : Daishin Securities
Analyst : Hyung-keun Ryu (RA: Ji-won Seo)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 240,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Driven by anticipated completion of HBM4 12-stack qualification for major clients, late-February mass production shipments, and memory ASP growth, full-year 2026 operating profit forecast is raised to KRW 170T alongside reclaiming the No. 1 global memory operating profit position in 1Q26.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 6-Month Target Price upgraded to KRW 240,000 (Current price as of January 29, 2026: KRW 160,700)
- Valuation Methodology: Applied a Target P/B of 2.8x (a 30% premium to the 2021–2026 12M forward P/B peak), reflecting AI ecosystem opportunities (maximum capacity, capital strength, integrated device manufacturer value) and technology recovery
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 3.6x, P/B 2.0x, ROE 27.1%
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 19,664, BPS KRW 81,564
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.26T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 485.04T, Operating Profit KRW 170.64T (upgraded to KRW 170T from KRW 150T in text), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 132.45T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 509.74T, Operating Profit KRW 145.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 111.34T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Memory Pricing & 1Q26 Earnings Trajectory:
- 2026 annual average ASP growth assumptions: DRAM +113% YoY and NAND +71% YoY
- 1Q26 Memory division operating profit projected at KRW 33T, representing a structural turning point to reclaim the global No. 1 profit ranking
- HBM Competitive Turnaround:
- Expected to be the first to complete HBM4 12-stack qualification for major customers, demonstrating significant improvements in speed and power efficiency
- Mass production shipments scheduled for late February, with surging customer order requests and market share gains anticipated as an inflection point marking the start of a recovery
- Business Transformation & Capex Strategy:
- Sales Structure Reform: Pursuing LTAs, down payments, and deposits to secure medium-to-long-term supply-demand stability and transition to a profit-centric business model
- Capex Allocation Purpose: The 2026 Capex increase is focused on R&D enhancement for next-generation technology (NRD-K) and medium-to-long-term flexible capacity preparation (Shell First strategy), rather than near-term production surges
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as an enterprise beginning an HBM competitiveness recovery through early HBM4 market entry and late-February mass shipments, while reaching KRW 170T in 2026 operating profit and reclaiming the No. 1 quarterly memory operating profit ranking in 1Q26. This perspective places primary emphasis on the reduced justification for a peer valuation discount as structural competitiveness recovers with maximum capacity and capital strength, alongside sales structure reforms (LTAs and deposits) aimed at stabilizing medium-to-long-term profitability.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether HBM4 12-stack mass production shipments commence on schedule in late February, whether realized 1Q memory operating profit (projected at KRW 33T) successfully reclaims the top global ranking, and whether annual DRAM (+113%) / NAND (+71%) ASP gains and LTA-centered contract structures translate into verified financial performance. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
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