Brokerage : Shinhan Securities (Shinhan Premier Research)
Analyst : Hyungtae Kim (Executive Research Analyst), Hyesoo Song (Research Analyst)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 300,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Prolonged memory supply shortages through 2028 and steep ASP hikes are projected to drive significant earnings upward revisions in the DS segment alongside revived expectations for enhanced shareholder return policies.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
Key Investment & Valuation Metrics
- Base Stock Price (2026-04-20): KRW 214,500
- Target Price: KRW 300,000 (+11.1% increase, +39.9% upside potential)
- Rating: BUY (Maintained)
- Valuation Methodology: Applied target P/B of 2.2x (historical band upper bound) to 12-month forward BPS of KRW 136,536
- Market Cap: KRW 1,254.03 Trillion (5,846.3 million shares outstanding, 76.0% floating rate)
Annual Financial Outlook & Forecasts (K-IFRS Consolidated)
- 2024(A): Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit KRW 33.62T, P/E 11.1x, ROE 9.0%, P/B 0.9x, EV/EBITDA 3.6x, Dividend Yield 2.7%
- 2025(A): Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, Net Profit KRW 44.26T, P/E 18.8x, ROE 10.8%, P/B 1.9x, EV/EBITDA 7.7x, Dividend Yield 1.4%
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 689.88T (+106.8% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 369.70T (+748.9% YoY), Net Profit KRW 286.09T, P/E 5.0x, ROE 50.8%, P/B 2.0x, EV/EBITDA 2.6x, Dividend Yield 0.8%
- 2027(F): Revenue KRW 839.37T, Operating Profit KRW 483.54T, Net Profit KRW 370.44T, P/E 3.9x, ROE 42.4%, P/B 1.4x, EV/EBITDA 1.6x, Dividend Yield 2.3%
- 2028(F): Revenue KRW 889.56T, Operating Profit KRW 484.59T, Net Profit KRW 369.59T, P/E 3.9x, ROE 30.3%, P/B 1.0x, EV/EBITDA 1.2x, Dividend Yield 2.3%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
Industry Dynamics & Market Catalysts
- Prolonged Excess Demand in Memory: Despite earlier execution of CapEx timelines across the industry, resolving memory undersupply conditions before 2028 remains unlikely.
- NAND Re-rating Potential: Sustained upward pricing trends in NAND, where capacity expansion had previously taken a back seat, are acting as a key catalyst for additional earnings upgrades.
- The NAND spot price premium in April has already surpassed 30%, with the price spread narrowing faster compared to DRAM.
2026 Full-Year Segment Forecasts
- Consolidated FY2026 Outlook: Revenue revised upward to KRW 689.9T (+106.8% YoY) and Operating Profit to KRW 369.7T (+748.9% YoY).
- Device Solutions (DS / Semiconductor): Operating Profit estimated at KRW 357.8T (DRAM KRW 263.2T, NAND KRW 98.7T, Non-memory -KRW 4.1T).
- DRAM: Annual ASP growth projected at +268.8% with Bit Growth (B/G) of +19.8%.
- NAND: Annual ASP growth projected at +285.0% with Bit Growth (B/G) of +12.6%.
- Other Business Units: Mobile eXperience (MX) OP KRW 6.1T, Consumer Electronics (CE) OP KRW 0.2T, Display OP KRW 4.1T, Harman OP KRW 1.4T.
2Q26 Quarterly Outlook
- Revenue projected at KRW 168.4T and Operating Profit at KRW 89.9T.
- 2Q26 QoQ ASP increase expected at +41% for DRAM and +67% for NAND (outperforming general NAND market consensus of 30~40%).
- While the MX segment faces unavoidable margin compression starting in 2Q26 following solid 1Q26 performance, massive semiconductor profit expansion dominates overall company growth.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a company maximizing earnings leverage through memory price surges and structural undersupply, outweighing near-term profitability moderation in set divisions. Rather than focusing on temporary margin pressures in consumer devices, the overarching perspective places greater significance on the extended memory shortage through 2028, the accelerated pricing rebound in NAND, and the potential for additional profitability improvements to revive expectations for enhanced shareholder return policies.
To verify the continued validity of this investment thesis, key variables to monitor include quarterly DRAM and NAND blended ASP trends, further profitability improvements driven by application diversification, and any actual adjustments to the company’s shareholder return policies. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings conference calls, official IR presentations, regulatory filings on DART/KRX, and periodic financial reports.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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