Brokerage : Daishin Securities
Analyst : Jeonghwan Cho, CFA
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 990,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Multi-year earnings visibility anchored by secured Middle East export contracts, driving strong top-line and margin expansion through 2027-2028 despite short-term 2Q26 earnings misses
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Rating BUY (Maintain), 6-Month Target Price KRW 990,000 (Maintain), Current Price KRW 702,000 (As of 2026-08-06), Upside Potential 41.0%
- Target Price Methodology: Calculated by applying a Target P/E multiple of 26.0x to 2028 estimated controlling net profit of KRW 838 Billion (Target Market Cap KRW 21,780 Billion based on 22,000 Thousand shares)
- Financial Forecasts & Historicals:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 3,276 Billion, Operating Profit KRW 230 Billion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 210 Billion, Total Net Profit KRW 217 Billion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 222 Billion, EPS KRW 10,106, P/E 18x, BPS KRW 56,248, P/B 3.2x, ROE 17.5%
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 4,307 Billion, Operating Profit KRW 321 Billion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 278 Billion, Total Net Profit KRW 237 Billion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 253 Billion, EPS KRW 11,516, P/E 28x, BPS KRW 67,077, P/B 4.0x, ROE 16.1%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 5,044 Billion, Operating Profit KRW 400 Billion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 371 Billion, Total Net Profit KRW 289 Billion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 304 Billion, EPS KRW 13,829, P/E 51x, BPS KRW 77,612, P/B 3.9x, ROE 16.9%
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 6,466 Billion, Operating Profit KRW 667 Billion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 692 Billion, Total Net Profit KRW 588 Billion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 625 Billion, EPS KRW 28,431, P/E 25x, BPS KRW 99,166, P/B 2.7x, ROE 27.0%
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 7,978 Billion, Operating Profit KRW 941 Billion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 927 Billion, Total Net Profit KRW 788 Billion, Controlling Net Profit KRW 838 Billion, EPS KRW 38,077, P/E 18x, BPS KRW 127,662, P/B 2.5x, ROE 28.1%
- Stock Metrics: KOSPI 6,296.38pt, Market Cap KRW 15,444 Billion, Market Cap Weight 0.23%, Common Capital Stock KRW 110 Billion, 52-Week High/Low KRW 1,020,000 / KRW 364,500, 120-Day Avg Daily Trading Value KRW 270.4 Billion, Foreign Ownership 26.46%, Major Shareholders LIG & 8 affiliated parties (38.21%), National Pension Service (10.3%)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Review & Shortfall Analysis:
- Consolidated revenue reached KRW 1,111.0 Billion (+17.4% YoY) and operating profit reached KRW 105.7 Billion (+29.5% YoY, OPM 9.5%).
- Results missed estimates (KRW 1,340 Billion revenue, KRW 122 Billion operating profit) due to sequential decline and flat YoY recognition of UAE Cheongung-II revenue, combined with lower other export sales compared to 1Q26. Operating margin narrowed (from 14.7% in 1Q26 to 9.5% in 2Q26) due to the absence of high-margin Cheongung-II spare parts revenue.
- 2026 Earnings Profile:
- Export revenues are projected to increase in 2H driven by UAE Cheongung-II shipments.
- With domestic revenues concentrated in 4Q26, corporate operating margin is expected to exhibit a downward trend in the second half.
- 2027–2028 Structural Growth Drivers:
- Development revenues from Saudi Arabia and Iraq Cheongung-II are currently recognized alongside UAE mass-production revenue; full mass-production revenue recognition for Saudi and Iraq is slated to begin in 2H27.
- Revenue is projected to expand to KRW 6.5 Trillion (+28.2% YoY) in 2027 and KRW 8.0 Trillion (+23.4% YoY) in 2028.
- Higher export revenue contribution is expected to expand operating margins from 10.3% in 2027 to 11.8% in 2028 via product mix improvement.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The covering analyst views LIG D&A not as a company disrupted by quarterly spare parts recognition gaps, but as a premier defense exporter whose multi-year top-line and margin expansion trajectories are pre-determined by contracted international order backlogs. This perspective emphasizes the medium-to-long term structural product mix improvements and mass production deliveries across the Middle East (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq) over short-term quarterly earnings misses.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, primary focus should be directed toward the sequential recovery pace of UAE Cheongung-II revenue in 2H26, the domestic revenue concentration in 4Q26, and the operational initiation of mass-production revenue recognition for Saudi and Iraq Cheongung-II contracts starting in 2H27. These milestones can be tracked via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR materials, and periodic regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
