Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Seona Kim (RA: Changkeun Yoo)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 580,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Robust pipeline execution led by AZ rilvegostomig Phase 1 entry and Enhertu progress, with Keytruda royalty adjustments sufficiently reflected in the valuation and expectations for new large-scale out-licensing deals maintaining ~USD 300M per asset.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price (12M) KRW 580,000 (Maintained) (Closing price as of February 13, 2026: KRW 382,000)
- Market Data: KOSDAQ Index 1,106.08pt / Market Cap KRW 20.44 Trillion (Market Cap Weight 3.37%) / Shares Outstanding 53,505,800 / 60-Day Average Trading Volume 775.1 Thousand Shares / 60-Day Average Trading Value KRW 33.94 Billion / Foreign Ownership 13.26% / 52-Week High KRW 559,000, Low KRW 317,500 / Major Shareholders: Soonjae Park and 4 affiliates 20.38%, Inwoo Hyung and 2 affiliates 5.09%
- Annual Financial Forecast (Hana Securities Estimates):
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 202.1 Billion (+96.4% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 114.8 Billion (+352.0% YoY, OPM 56.8%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 121.1 Billion, Net Profit KRW 94.6 Billion, EPS KRW 1,757 (+50.04% YoY), BPS KRW 7,364, PER 255.83x, PBR 61.04x, ROE 28.25%, EV/EBITDA 201.18x
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 471.2 Billion (+133.2% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 308.2 Billion (+168.5% YoY, OPM 65.4%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 307.0 Billion, Net Profit KRW 246.0 Billion, EPS KRW 4,561 (+159.59% YoY), BPS KRW 11,925, PER 83.75x, PBR 32.03x, ROE 47.42%, EV/EBITDA 64.24x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Steady Progress Across Core Clinical Pipelines:
- AstraZeneca’s undisclosed candidate was revealed as rilvegostomig (PD-1xTIGIT bispecific), entering the global Phase 1 ARTEMIDE-subQ trial, confirming solid partnership execution.
- Daiichi Sankyo’s Enhertu SC Phase 1 trial progresses smoothly without safety issues across global sites (Korea, Japan, US, Europe), while GSK targets clinical trial initiation for Jemperli within 2026.
- Disclosed preclinical data for a monthly long-acting formulation of Retatrutide (triple agonist obesity therapy), with patent applications underway.
- Per-Asset Deal Structure & Favorable Commercial Terms:
- Alteogen’s per-asset licensing model allows it to secure multiple partners within the same drug class (e.g., AZ rilvegostomig and GSK dostarlimab) post-Keytruda.
- The company plans to maintain terms averaging approximately USD 300 Million in total milestones per asset in future licensing transactions.
- Keytruda Royalty Impact Reflected & Upcoming Catalysts:
- The ~KRW 5.3 Trillion market cap contraction following the 2% Keytruda SC royalty disclosure has sufficiently reflected estimated royalty reductions in the valuation.
- The company is preparing large-scale licensing deals, with H1 catalysts including the definitive license conversion of the December 2025 option agreement and milestone receipts upon Phase 1 entry for a 2019 undisclosed candidate (expected to reveal the partner and target).
- KOSPI market transfer listing is expected in the second half of 2026.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Alteogen as a drug delivery platform company whose valuation contraction (~KRW 5.3 Trillion) has sufficiently reflected the estimated impact of Keytruda SC’s 2% royalty disclosure, with core pipeline momentum remaining solid as demonstrated by AZ rilvegostomig’s Phase 1 initiation and Enhertu SC’s smooth clinical progression. The overarching perspective emphasizes the company’s expectation to maintain approximately USD 300 Million in total milestones per asset and near-term catalysts—such as the December option deal conversion and Phase 1 milestone receipts for the 2019 asset—to drive share price recovery.
To verify whether this investment thesis progresses as expected, investors should primarily monitor clinical trial developments for AZ rilvegostomig and Daiichi Sankyo’s Enhertu SC, definitive contract conversion of the December 2025 option agreement, Phase 1 trial initiation and partner disclosure for the 2019 undisclosed candidate, and progress regarding the KOSPI transfer listing in H2. These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, and regulatory filings on DART/KRX.
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