Brokerage : Yuanta Securities
Analyst : Hyunsoo Ha
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 2,100,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Full capacity operation across Plants 1–4 combined with the acquisition of the US Maryland facility, continuous contract momentum following the Biosecure Act passage, and modality expansions at Campus 3.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price KRW 2,100,000 (Upgraded from KRW 1,300,000) (Target enterprise value derived by discounting 2028E EBITDA of KRW 2.98 Trillion at WACC 8.6% and applying a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 31.0x—a 50% premium over Lonza’s 3-year average multiple; upside potential of 22% based on the January 6, 2026 closing price of KRW 1,721,000)
- Market Data: Market Cap KRW 79.67 Trillion / Total Shares Outstanding 46,290,951 / 60-Day Average Trading Value KRW 92.0 Billion / Foreign Ownership 12.67% / Dividend Yield 0.00% / Major Shareholders: Samsung C&T and 5 affiliates
- Annual Financial Forecast (K-IFRS Standalone Estimates):
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 4.55 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.11 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.57 Trillion, PER 72.4x, PBR 7.2x, EV/EBITDA 31.3x, ROE 15.6%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 5.24 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.31 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.77 Trillion, PER 45.1x, PBR 6.3x, EV/EBITDA 26.6x, ROE 15.1%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Q4 2025 Earnings Preview (Standalone Basis):
- Standalone revenue is projected at KRW 1.28 Trillion (+34.4% YoY) and operating profit at KRW 567.1 Billion (+80.2% YoY, OPM 44.4%), smoothly meeting market consensus estimates (Revenue KRW 1.24 Trillion, OP KRW 546.0 Billion).
- 100% capacity utilization across Plants 1 through 4 and sustained USD/KRW exchange rate strength underpin robust operating results.
- Plant 5 (which commenced operations in April 2025) is scheduled to initiate initial revenue recognition in Q2 2026.
- US Maryland Manufacturing Site Acquisition & Global Flexibility:
- On December 22, 2025, signed an asset purchase agreement to acquire GSK’s 60,000-liter biopharmaceutical manufacturing site in Maryland for USD 280 Million, with closing expected within Q1 2026.
- Retention of 500+ experienced local personnel guarantees stable immediate operational continuity post-closing.
- While Maryland’s margins may trail domestic facilities, its capacity is relatively small compared to Plants 1–5 (784,000 liters), posing limited overall margin drag while offering flexible hedging against US trade policy shifts.
- Biosecure Act Enactment & Campus 3 Modality Expansion:
- Secured USD 4.8 Billion in new orders throughout 2025, with robust order contracting momentum expected to continue following the formal passage of the US Biosecure Act in December 2025.
- Execution of the land purchase agreement for Songdo Campus 3 paves the way for the upcoming Plant 6 groundbreaking announcement, while Campus 3 will house R&D and manufacturing facilities for diverse modalities including cell & gene therapy (CGT) and vaccines.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Biologics as a world-leading CDMO demonstrating strong baseline contracting power (USD 4.8 Billion in 2025) and top-tier operating margins, now expanding its manufacturing footprint into the US via the Maryland acquisition and capturing market share gains from the US Biosecure Act. The overarching perspective prioritizes the valuation upgrade to KRW 2.10 Million (backed by 2028E EBITDA approaching KRW 3 Trillion) and structural multi-modality expansion into CGT and vaccines at Campus 3 alongside Plant 6, rather than backward-looking quarterly comparisons.
To verify whether this investment thesis progresses as expected, investors should primarily monitor the final closing and operational restart of the Maryland facility within Q1 2026, the timeline of initial commercial revenue recognition from Plant 5 in Q2 2026, the continuous inflow of large-scale commercial contracts under the Biosecure Act, and formal groundbreaking announcements for Songdo Plant 6 and Campus 3 facilities. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, and regulatory filings on DART/KRX.
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