Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Seona Kim (RA: Changkeun Yoo)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 2,050,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Sustained mid-40% OPM post-spinoff and annual orders surpassing KRW 6.8 Trillion, with 2026 JPMHC presentations set to provide visibility on Plant 6 groundbreaking and new modality CAPEX.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price (12M) KRW 2,050,000 (Upgraded) (Derived using a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 34x—reflecting a 2x premium over Lonza based on superior profitability—applied to 2027E EBITDA discounted at WACC 8.4%; closing price as of January 6, 2026: KRW 1,721,000)
- Market Data: KOSPI Index 4,525.48pt / Market Cap KRW 79.67 Trillion / Shares Outstanding 46,291,000 / Foreign Ownership 12.67% / Major Shareholders: Samsung C&T and 5 affiliates 74.32%, National Pension Service 6.68%
- Annual Financial Forecast (Standalone Estimates, Discontinued Operations Excluded):
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 4.54 Trillion (+29.9% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 2.10 Trillion (+59.0% YoY, OPM 46.2%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.09 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.57 Trillion, EPS KRW 23,332 (+58.01% YoY), BPS KRW 234,320, PER 72.65x, PBR 7.23x, ROE 15.58%, EV/EBITDA 31.67x
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 5.44 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.57 Trillion, OPM 47.2%, Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.60 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.95 Trillion, EPS KRW 42,027 (+80.13% YoY), BPS KRW 276,347, PER 40.95x, PBR 6.23x, ROE 16.66%, EV/EBITDA 26.75x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Q4 2025 Earnings Preview & Full-Year 2025 Execution:
- Post-spinoff consolidated Q4 revenue is projected at KRW 1.27 Trillion (+1.2% YoY) and operating profit at KRW 560.5 Billion (+78.1% YoY, OPM 44.1%), demonstrating resilient margin defense despite one-off advisory fees and seasonal year-end expenses.
- Full-year 2025 revenue is expected to reach KRW 4.54 Trillion with an operating profit of KRW 2.10 Trillion (OPM 46.2%), reaching the top end of annual corporate guidance (+20%–30% revenue growth).
- Plant 5 (which commenced operations in April 2025) continues to ramp up steadily without unmanaged fixed-cost surges.
- Order Book Expansion & Near-Term Catalysts:
- Full-year 2025 cumulative order volume totaled KRW 6.8 Trillion, up KRW 1.4 Trillion from 2024 (KRW 5.4 Trillion), indicating that the current market valuation significantly lags the company’s contracting performance.
- The company’s presentation at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (JPMHC) on January 13 is expected to serve as a major catalyst by detailing timelines for Plant 6 groundbreaking and CDMO investments in new modalities (such as ADCs).
- Medium-to-Long-Term Infrastructure Moat:
- Integrating automated production facilities across Bio Campus 2 (Plants 6–8) will further enhance margin stability over the long term.
- Samsung Biologics maintains an overwhelming profitability profile (mid-40% OPM) compared to global peer Lonza (forward 12M OPM ~21%), fully justifying its valuation premium.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Biologics as an unrivaled global manufacturing leader that has proven structural high profitability post-spinoff by delivering over KRW 2 Trillion in operating profit and securing record annual orders of KRW 6.8 Trillion. The overarching perspective prioritizes the qualitative achievement of hitting the upper bound of annual guidance and the upcoming catalyst of formalizing the Plant 6 construction roadmap and new modality CAPEX at the 2026 JPMHC, rather than temporary share price consolidation.
To verify whether this investment thesis progresses as expected, investors should primarily monitor the finalization of full-year 2025 operating profit exceeding KRW 2.1 Trillion, the formal announcement of the Songdo Plant 6 groundbreaking schedule during or following the 2026 JPMHC, and concrete investment disclosures regarding ADC and next-generation modality facilities. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, and regulatory filings on DART/KRX.
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