Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Hyemin Huh
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 2,100,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Temporary 3Q strike concerns are expected to be offset by commercial contributions from Plant 5 and the Rockville facility, with potential earnings estimate upgrades driven by 4Q performance concentration and unreflected Rockville revenue.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY rating maintained; Target Price maintained at KRW 2,100,000.
- Valuation & Outlook Assessment: Full-year revenue growth guidance towards the upper bound (+15~+20%) appears confident even without including 4Q Rockville revenues, with additional 2027E earnings upgrade potential following the PolyPeptide acquisition.
- Annual Financial Forecast (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2024: Revenue KRW 3.4971 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.3214 trillion (OPM 37.8%), EBITDA KRW 1.6205 trillion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 1.4024 trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.0510 trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.0510 trillion, EPS KRW 14,766 (Growth +11.1%), P/E 94.6x, P/B 10.71x, EV/EBITDA 41.6x, ROE 12.0%, Net Debt Ratio -1.7%.
- 2025: Revenue KRW 4.5570 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.0681 trillion (OPM 45.4%), EBITDA KRW 2.4374 trillion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.0790 trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.5862 trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.5862 trillion, EPS KRW 23,621 (Growth +60.0%), P/E 71.8x, P/B 10.58x, EV/EBITDA 32.0x, ROE 19.0%, Net Debt Ratio -7.3%.
- 2026(E): Revenue KRW 5.4764 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.4822 trillion (OPM 45.3%), EBITDA KRW 3.0615 trillion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.5654 trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.9573 trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.9573 trillion, EPS KRW 42,282 (Growth +79.0%), BPS KRW 202,409, P/E 32.4x, P/B 6.78x, EV/EBITDA 19.9x, ROE 23.3%, Net Debt Ratio -27.0%.
- 2027(E): Revenue KRW 5.9530 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.7080 trillion (OPM 45.5%), EBITDA KRW 3.2218 trillion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.8659 trillion, Net Profit KRW 2.1866 trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 2.1866 trillion, EPS KRW 47,236 (Growth +11.7%), P/E 29.0x, P/B 5.50x, EV/EBITDA 18.2x, ROE 20.9%, Net Debt Ratio -42.8%.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Review (Broadly In-Line):
- Generated Revenue of KRW 1.3209 trillion (+30% YoY, +5% QoQ) and Operating Profit of KRW 586.4 billion (+23% YoY, +1% QoQ, OPM 44%), broadly meeting consensus (Revenue KRW 1.2923 trillion, OP KRW 595.1 billion).
- Maintained high margins despite pre-operating costs for Plant 5 and Rockville workforce succession, backed by full utilization across Plants 1–4, minimal changeovers, and FX tailwinds (2Q average KRW/USD 1,501.9, +8% YoY, +3% QoQ).
- Second-Half & 4Q Earnings Concentration:
- Temporary 3Q production disruptions from strikes are expected to be offset by commercial recognition from the Rockville site (~KRW 100 billion) and Plant 5.
- Further upside in full-year estimates is anticipated in 4Q driven by deferred batch recognition, Rockville contributions, and supportive FX rates.
- Guidance confidence remains high for reaching the upper end of +15~+20% annual growth, which currently excludes 4Q Rockville revenues.
- Order Flow & Structural Environment:
- 1H order intake reached KRW 570.4 billion, reflecting temporary client inquiry delays from US tariff uncertainties, which are largely priced in.
- Regulatory clarity surrounding the BIOSECURE Act creates a favorable backdrop for non-Chinese CDMOs, supporting the target to break ground on Plant 6 within the year.
- Establishing a Netherlands sales office in 3Q to complete direct sales coverage across three core global hubs.
- Robust quarterly cash generation of KRW 500–600 billion continues to support strategic growth investments.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Biologics not as an entity limited by first-half order pacing or temporary 3Q strike disruptions, but as a premier global CDMO deploying strong internal cash flows (KRW 500–600 billion quarterly) to drive a steep 4Q earnings recovery via Plant 5 and Rockville, while preparing long-term expansion under BIOSECURE Act tailwinds. The perspective focuses on the structural earnings acceleration in 4Q and the quality of medium-term capacity additions rather than quarterly noise.
To verify whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key monitoring milestones include tracking the recovery of strike-impacted production batches in 4Q, the actual revenue scale recognized from the Rockville facility (~KRW 100 billion milestone), the official ground-breaking of Plant 6 within the year under BIOSECURE Act progress, and the definitive closing of the PolyPeptide Group acquisition. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings on DART.
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