Brokerage : DS Investment & Securities
Analyst : Tae-yong Choi
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 450,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Building on 4Q25 results meeting consensus, strong AI data center ESS growth (+50% YoY) and the startup of North American LFP lines underpin a projected 4Q26 operating profit turnaround, alongside medium-term expansion into humanoid robotics and Physical AI via 46-series and all-solid-state batteries.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 450,000 (Raised)
- Market Data (As of 2026-02-02): Close KRW 356,000 (Upside Potential 26.4%), Market Cap (Common) KRW 28.69 Trillion, KOSPI 4,949.7pt, Par Value KRW 5,000, Capital Stock KRW 416.0 Billion, Shares Outstanding 80.59 Million, Foreign Ownership 23.7%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025F → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 14.95 Trillion (YoY +12.7%) → KRW 18.93 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion (Loss Continued) → KRW -439.0 Billion (Loss Continued, Narrowed) → KRW 1.16 Trillion (Turnaround)
- Pre-tax Profit: KRW -1.37 Trillion → KRW -263.0 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 2.40 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -330.0 Billion → KRW -6.0 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 35.0 Billion (Turnaround)
- EPS: KRW -4,293 → KRW -97 (Loss Continued) → KRW 435 (Turnaround)
- Operating Margin (OPM): -13.0% → -2.9% → 6.1%
- ROE: -1.7% → 0.0% → 0.2%
- PER / PBR: -82.9x / 1.4x → -3,679.6x / 1.5x → 819.1x / 1.5x
- EV/EBITDA: 91.1x → 17.5x → 9.7x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q25P Earnings Review: Preliminary Revenue stood at KRW 3.9 Trillion (QoQ +26.4%, YoY +2.8%) and Operating Loss was KRW -299.2 Billion (Loss continued QoQ/YoY), meeting consensus. Top-line expansion was driven by OEM compensation for prismatic EV cells and robust ESS shipments. AMPC credits jumped to KRW 79.8 Billion (QoQ +307%, YoY +221%) due to US production startup. Prismatic EV cells posted continued losses due to quality costs, while ESS reached breakeven (including AMPC) due to legacy product warranty expenses (estimated at high single-digit margins excluding one-offs).
- Back-Half Weighted Recovery & 4Q26 Turnaround:
- Top-line Driver: Full-year growth will be led by the ESS division (Revenue +50% YoY). Supported by steady AI data center demand and the ramp-up of the North American prismatic LFP line (SBB 2.0), full-year AMPC is projected at KRW 425.9 Billion (YoY +150.7%) alongside margin recovery.
- EV & Small Battery Units: In prismatic EV cells, loss reduction will be pursued via EV-to-ESS line conversions and the installation of 46-series lines at the Hungarian fab. Small batteries will recover gradually on higher shipments of BBUs and professional power tools. Full-year 2026 CapEx is expected to decline slightly from 2025 (KRW 3.3 Trillion).
- Preparing for the Physical AI Era with 46-Series & Solid-State:
- All-Solid-State Batteries: Maintaining a 2027 mass-production timeline with dedicated line CapEx scheduled within the year, targeting humanoid robotics and UAM applications requiring space efficiency and high power output.
- 46-Series Deployment: Expanding beyond automotive use, the 46-series cylindrical format is expected to be adopted across humanoid robotics, following initial cylindrical deployments in platforms such as Hyundai Motor Group’s DAL-e.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a battery manufacturer positioned to capitalize on a back-half weighted operational turnaround and emerging upside in Physical AI (humanoid robotics and UAM), rather than dwelling on downside risks from broader EV sector headwinds. This perspective highlights the explosive growth in AI data center ESS demand (projected revenue +50% YoY), AMPC expansion to KRW 425.9 Billion via North American prismatic LFP lines, and increasing visibility toward a 4Q26 operating profit turnaround, while managing near-term quarterly operating losses.
To assess the continuing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the commercial scaling of the North American prismatic LFP line (SBB 2.0) to deliver KRW 425.9 Billion in annual AMPC credits and +50% ESS top-line growth, utilization recovery at the Hungarian plant via 46-series installations and ESS line conversions, and progress on executing dedicated line CapEx within the year for 2027 all-solid-state mass production. These operational milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR updates, and periodic regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
