Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Hyun-wook Lee
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 500,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Initiating a fundamental turnaround starting with resilient 1Q26 results, supported by P6 battery shipments for European Hyundai/Kia volume models, North American ESS capacity expected to be fully booked through 2028, and European Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) policy tailwinds.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 500,000 (Raised reflecting benefits from the draft European Industrial Accelerator Act)
- Market Data (As of 2026-04-01): Current Price KRW 432,000 (Upside Potential 15.7%), Market Cap KRW 35.17 Trillion, KOSPI 5,478.70pt, Shares Outstanding 82,203 Thousand, Foreign Ownership 24.5%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025 → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.57 Trillion → KRW 19.27 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion → KRW -186.0 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 1.80 Trillion (Turnaround)
- Pre-tax Profit: KRW -1.36 Trillion → KRW 550.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 2.44 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -649.0 Billion → KRW 187.8 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 586.1 Billion
- EPS: KRW -8,325 → KRW 22,847 (Turnaround) → KRW 71,300
- Operating Margin (OPM): -13.0% → -1.2% → 9.3%
- ROE: -3.2% → 8.4% → 22.3%
- PER / PBR: -32.4x / 1.0x → 18.9x / 1.5x → 6.1x / 1.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 87.3x → 23.5x → 9.7x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Preview: Projected Revenue of KRW 3.58 Trillion (QoQ -7.1%) and Operating Loss of KRW -212.0 Billion (Loss continued QoQ, recognizing KRW 80.1 Billion in AMPC, OPM -5.9%), slightly beating market consensus (Revenue KRW 3.4 Trillion, Operating Loss KRW -275.0 Billion). Shipments to BMW and VW are improving driven by European EV mix acceleration despite difficult North American EV conditions. North American ESS NCA shipments hold flat QoQ, while small battery channel inventory normalized from 15 months down to 6 months on data center construction tool demand.
- 2Q26 Segment Recovery & North American ESS Catalysts:
- EV Segment: Shipments of P6 high-nickel batteries for European Hyundai/Kia volume models (Long Range) starting in 2Q26 will drive the core EV recovery.
- ESS Capacity & Order Pipeline: Total ESS manufacturing capacity is projected to reach 42GWh by end-2026 (Ulsan 10GWh, China 3GWh, North America 29GWh). Out of the 29GWh North American capacity, eligible AMPC shipments are estimated at 7.6GWh (KRW 359.1 Billion) for the full year. Notably, North American ESS capacity is expected to be fully booked through 2028.
- European Policy Tailwinds: The European Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) draft released in March provides a structurally favorable environment for Korean battery cell makers over Chinese peers.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a battery manufacturer entering an operational turnaround, initiated by a 1Q earnings beat and anchored by upcoming 2Q P6 cell shipments for European Hyundai/Kia volume models alongside North American ESS capacity that is expected to be fully booked through 2028. This perspective places primary importance on the accelerating EV recovery starting in 2Q and the medium-term market share visibility created by European policy tailwinds (IAA), rather than near-term quarterly operating losses.
To assess the continuing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the volume delivery pace of P6 high-nickel batteries for European Hyundai/Kia platforms starting in 2Q26, the realization of the projected 7.6GWh in annual AMPC-eligible ESS shipments (KRW 359.1 Billion) with capacity expected to remain fully booked through 2028, and the legislative progression of the European IAA. These operational milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official company IR releases, and statutory regulatory filings.
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