Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities Analyst : Kim Chul-joong, Se-hoon Jung Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained) Target Price : KRW 1,000,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Annual and quarterly operating profit forecasts are revised upward on the back of rising BBU/data center demand and EV/ESS profitability improvements, paving the way for a turnaround in core operations without relying on AMPC subsidies.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 1,000,000 (Maintained; based on equity value of KRW 78.9 Trillion, reflecting total operating value of KRW 88.7 Trillion and net debt of KRW 9.7 Trillion)
- Current Stock Price & Upside: KRW 358,500 (as of July 30, 2026), Upside Potential 178.9%
- Market & Equity Data: KOSPI 5,593.56 pt, Market Cap KRW 28.89 Trillion, Total Shares Outstanding 81.0 Million (80.59 Million), Free Float 72.0%, Foreign Ownership 26.3%
- Financial Performance & Estimates Summary:
- 2024: Revenue KRW 16.59 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 363.0 Billion (OP Margin 2.2%), Net Profit KRW 599.0 Billion, EPS KRW 8,288, ROE 3.1%, P/E 29.2x, P/B 0.9x, Dividend Yield 0.4%
- 2025: Revenue KRW 13.27 Trillion, Operating Loss KRW 1.72 Trillion (OP Margin -13.0%), Net Loss KRW 649.0 Billion, EPS -KRW 8,325, ROE -3.2%, P/E N/A, P/B 1.0x, Dividend Yield 0.0%
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 15.84 Trillion (Table 2: KRW 15.83 Trillion), Operating Profit KRW 680.0 Billion (Consensus KRW 86.0 Billion, OP Margin 4.3%), Net Profit KRW 1.37 Trillion, EPS KRW 16,600 (Turnaround to Profit), ROE 5.9%, P/E 21.6x, P/B 1.2x, Dividend Yield 0.0%
- 2027(F): Revenue KRW 18.58 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.81 Trillion (OP Margin 9.7%), Net Profit KRW 2.30 Trillion, EPS KRW 27,972, ROE 8.9%, P/E 12.8x, P/B 1.1x, Dividend Yield 0.0%
- 2028(F): Revenue KRW 22.71 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.85 Trillion (OP Margin 12.6%), Net Profit KRW 2.29 Trillion, EPS KRW 27,889, ROE 8.1%, P/E 12.9x, P/B 1.0x, Dividend Yield 0.0%
- Segment Valuation Breakdown:
- Small Battery (EBITDA KRW 994.0 Billion, 15x multiple): EV KRW 14.92 Trillion (Upward revision reflecting BBU and power tools)
- EV Battery (EBITDA KRW 1.20 Trillion, 15x multiple): EV KRW 18.06 Trillion (Upward revision in EV earnings estimates)
- ESS Battery (2027E EBITDA KRW 2.08 Trillion, 20x multiple): EV KRW 41.50 Trillion
- Electronic Materials (EBITDA KRW 308.0 Billion, 10x multiple): EV KRW 3.08 Trillion
- Samsung Display Stake Value: KRW 11.14 Trillion (Based on SDC book value of KRW 73 Trillion)
- Net Debt Deduction: Estimated 2026 net debt of KRW 9.79 Trillion
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Upward Revision of Operating Profit Estimates:
- 2026 annual operating profit forecast raised from KRW 250.0 Billion to KRW 680.0 Billion (2027E raised by +5%, 2028E by +7%).
- 3Q26 operating profit raised from KRW 121.0 Billion to KRW 192.0 Billion.
- 4Q26 operating profit raised from KRW 264.0 Billion to KRW 444.0 Billion.
- Standalone full-year operating profitability is expected to turn positive in 2026 even when excluding AMPC subsidies.
- Segment Earnings Drivers:
- Small Battery: 2026 operating loss estimate narrowed from -KRW 190.0 Billion to -KRW 72.0 Billion, driven by expanding demand for BBU and data center power tools.
- Mid-to-Large Battery (EV/ESS): 2026 operating loss narrowed from -KRW 248.0 Billion to -KRW 158.0 Billion on improved product mix and profitability.
- 2Q26 Review & 3Q Core Turnaround:
- 2Q26 operating profit reached KRW 203.8 Billion, beating market expectations; core business posted a modest profit even after excluding ~KRW 184.0 Billion in one-off tariff refunds.
- Core operating profit excluding AMPC is expected to fully enter the black starting in 3Q26.
- Structural Competitive Strengths & Valuation Gap:
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- Capital advantage (substantial liquidity expected via SDC stake sale within the year), 2) Prismatic form factor leadership, and 3) Regulatory tailwinds from US/European restrictions on Chinese battery supply chains.
- Shares are trading at attractive valuation levels of 2027E EV/EBITDA 8.4x, P/E 12.8x, and P/B 1.1x, highlighting significant upside relative to global peers.
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📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as an intact fundamental performer whose long-term growth trajectory remains entirely unaltered by recent market pullbacks, successfully transitioning into underlying operating profitability driven by BBU/data center demand and EV/ESS mix improvements without relying on AMPC subsidies. The perspective underscores that the company’s capital advantage from the upcoming Samsung Display stake sale, combined with its global leadership in the prismatic form factor and tightening anti-China regulatory tailwinds, positions the stock at historically depressed valuation levels that offer substantial upside potential.
To verify whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include tracking whether core operating profit (excluding AMPC and one-off items) successfully enters positive territory in Q3 and Q4, monitoring the pace of loss reduction in the small battery division driven by BBU/data center shipments, and confirming the realized cash proceeds and execution roadmap from the planned Samsung Display stake divestment within the year. These milestones can be monitored through future quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, and regular regulatory filings.
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