Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Hong-sik Kim (RA: Sang-hoon Lee)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 55,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Despite strong 2026 operating profit growth (KRW 1.87 Trillion) and attractive valuation (2026E PBR 0.9x), near-term share price correction risk exists due to the upcoming 4Q25 dividend contraction in January; advising a long-term buy horizon of 6+ months targeting post-April recovery and 5G SA/Advanced tariff catalysts.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 12-Month Target Price maintained at KRW 55,000 (Based on the January 5, 2026 closing price of KRW 53,000)
- Investment Strategy & Timing Rationale: Restrict recommendations to long-term buying (6+ months) anticipating post-April share price recovery, as near-term sentiment faces disappointment from the January 4Q25 dividend announcement
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.909 Trillion (+3.9% YoY)
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.872 Trillion (Strong expansion from FY2025F KRW 1.244 Trillion)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.145 Trillion
- 2026E EPS: KRW 5,332 / BPS: KRW 58,769 / ROE: 9.38% / PER: 9.94x / PBR: 0.90x / EV/EBITDA: 3.17x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- Projected FY2026 DPS: KRW 2,600 (~5% expected dividend yield) based on strict adherence to the 50% adjusted net profit payout policy
- Restoring DPS to FY2024 levels (KRW 3,500) requires consolidated operating profit exceeding KRW 2.0 Trillion, deferring full dividend recovery to FY2027
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Near-Term Dividend Risk & 1Q Timing:
- 4Q25 dividend announced in January 2026 expected to drop sharply YoY, likely triggering short-term price adjustments as aggressive expectations reset.
- Sustainable dividend normalization sentiment is projected to activate only after the 1Q26 DPS is declared (April 2026).
- Strict Payout Principles vs Excessive Market Expectations:
- Company policy allocates >50% of consolidated adjusted net profit; regular operational losses (including 2025 incident costs) are not excluded from adjustments.
- Given wireless service revenue trends and operational expenses, 2026 operating profit is unlikely to surpass KRW 2.0 Trillion, capping FY2026 DPS at approximately KRW 2,600.
- Valuation Assessment & Bull Market Context:
- Inexpensive valuation at 2026E PBR 0.9x and a 5% dividend yield provides fundamental support.
- Rather than general Value-Up sentiment, meaningful re-rating requires revenue growth visibility driven by tariff restructuring under 5G SA or 5G Advanced rollouts.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as fundamentally undervalued at a 2026E PBR of 0.9x, a 5% dividend yield, and KRW 1.87 Trillion in operating profit growth, but cautions that the anticipated sharp drop in the 4Q25 dividend (announced in January) creates near-term downside volatility. Arguing that aggressive market expectations for an immediate return to a KRW 3,500 DPS in 2026 overlook the company’s 50% payout policy (which caps 2026 DPS at ~KRW 2,600), the analyst recommends a patient investment horizon exceeding six months—accumulating toward the post-April window when 1Q DPS confirms the dividend trajectory and 5G SA/Advanced tariff momentum emerges.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include tracking market reaction post-January 4Q25 dividend disclosure, confirming that full-year operating profit tracking aligns with the projected KRW 1.87 Trillion turnaround, monitoring the 1Q26 DPS declaration in April to validate the KRW 2,600 annual baseline, and observing progress regarding 5G SA/Advanced deployment and subsequent service tariff revisions. These developments can be monitored via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR presentations, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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