Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Tae-hyun Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 64,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Headwinds from 4Q25 severance expenses (more than double 2024 levels) and year-end dividend uncertainties already priced in, setting the stage for a 2026 earnings turnaround (2026E OP KRW 1.83 Trillion) driven by competitor penalty-waiver subscriber win-backs and full-year Pangyo DC contributions.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Target Price maintained at KRW 64,000 (Based on the January 13, 2026 closing price of KRW 54,300)
- 4Q25 Earnings Forecast (Preview):
- Consolidated Revenue: KRW 4.402 Trillion (KRW 4.4016 Trillion in text, -2.4% YoY)
- Consolidated Operating Profit: KRW 102.2 Billion (-59.8% YoY, missing market consensus of KRW 177.4 Billion by 42%)
- Standalone (SKT) Revenue: KRW 3.047 Trillion (-4.5% YoY), Standalone Operating Profit: KRW 67.0 Billion (-62.5% YoY)
- SK Broadband Revenue: KRW 1.148 Trillion (+2.4% YoY), Operating Profit: KRW 56.2 Billion (-44.9% YoY)
- Causes of Contraction: Subscriber losses from cybersecurity incidents, customer appreciation packages (extra data allotments and enhanced membership perks), and voluntary retirement severance costs across SKT and SK Broadband exceeding double the 2024 level (~KRW 105.0 Billion)
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.733 Trillion (+3.3% YoY)
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.834 Trillion (+73.7% YoY, OPM 10.3%)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.148 Trillion
- 2026E EPS: KRW 5,346 / ROE: 9.7% / PER: 9.9x / PBR: 0.9x / EV/EBITDA: 3.6x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- High likelihood of 2025 year-end dividend omission or sharp reduction (given FY2025 estimated net profit of KRW 366.1 Billion, 1H dividends of KRW 356.6 Billion already represent a 97% shareholder return ratio)
- Market overhangs regarding 4Q operational drag and dividend uncertainties are largely priced into current share valuations
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Subscriber Win-Backs & 1Q26 Inflow Catalysts:
- Rebound phase following cumulative net churn of ~700,000 subscribers during prior disruptions (suspension of new sign-ups -500,000; penalty fee waiver window -200,000).
- Competitor security breaches and penalty fee waiver policies are creating win-back demand as former customers return to restore tenure and membership tiers, generating 1Q26 inflow benefits.
- Sustained AI Data Center (AIDC) Top-Line Expansion:
- SK Broadband’s operating profit temporarily pressured by retirement expenses, but DC capacity utilization continues to climb.
- Pangyo Data Center revenue recognition (generating ~KRW 100 Billion annually, with KRW 25 Billion reflected in 4Q25 following its July 2025 launch) powers steady non-telco growth.
- 2026 Earnings Recovery Path:
- Dissipation of one-off severance burdens and emergence of structural fixed-cost savings.
- Rebound in mobile subscribers combined with data center expansion will drive full-year operating profit to KRW 1.83 Trillion.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as absorbing its operational trough in 4Q25—where one-off voluntary retirement severance exceeding double 2024 levels and customer appreciation costs drove a 42% consensus operating profit miss—while noting that weak 4Q numbers and potential year-end dividend omissions are already priced into the stock. This perspective treats the 97% shareholder return ratio already delivered via 1H payouts as valuation downside support, while identifying 1Q26 subscriber win-back inflows from competitor disruptions and full-year Pangyo DC revenue as primary drivers supporting the BUY rating, KRW 64,000 target price, and the projected FY2026 operating profit recovery to KRW 1.83 Trillion.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that 4Q results formalize the clearance of retirement one-offs, tracking 1Q26 subscriber net additions to verify the pace of mobile revenue recovery, verifying the ongoing ~KRW 100 Billion annual revenue contribution from the Pangyo Data Center, and monitoring the quarterly execution of the FY2026 KRW 1.83 Trillion operating profit turnaround. These developments can be monitored via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR presentations, and periodic DART statutory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
