Brokerage : Samsung Securities
Analyst : Min-ha Choi (Senior Analyst), Hye-rim Yu (Research Associate)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 73,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Second-half wireless earnings normalization following the conclusion of customer compensation programs, a KRW 5T investment roadmap to add 1GW of AI data center capacity, and sustained shareholder return policies including a KRW 250B share buyback program
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / KRW 73,000 (Maintained)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026E Samsung Estimates):
- P/E (adj): 9.4x
- P/B: 0.7x
- EV/EBITDA: 4.3x
- EBITDA Margin: 21.3%
- ROE: 7.9%
- Dividend Yield: 4.4%
- Consolidated Financial Highlights & Forecasts (K-IFRS):
- 2025: Revenue KRW 28.24T, Operating Profit KRW 2.47T, Net Profit KRW 1.84T, EPS (adj) KRW 6,869
- 2026E (Forecast): Revenue KRW 27.51T, Operating Profit KRW 2.04T, Net Profit KRW 1.53T, EPS (adj) KRW 5,784
- 2027E (Forecast): Revenue KRW 28.04T, Operating Profit KRW 2.24T, Net Profit KRW 1.66T, EPS (adj) KRW 6,204
- 2028E (Forecast): Revenue KRW 28.90T, Operating Profit KRW 2.36T, Net Profit KRW 1.76T, EPS (adj) KRW 6,552
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Preview & Cost Trends:
- Consolidated Q2 revenue is estimated at KRW 6.80T (-8.5% YoY) and operating profit at KRW 576.8B (-43.2% YoY), expected to fall short of consensus.
- While net wireless additions continued, wireless service revenue is projected at KRW 1.68T (-1.6% YoY, -0.3% QoQ) due to full-quarter impacts from the customer compensation program (February to July) and tariff down-tiering.
- Operating profit is expected to contract YoY against the high base of prior-year real estate pre-sale income in Jayang-dong, but standalone operating profit is projected to turn positive QoQ through strict cost control. KT Cloud continued its top-line expansion supported by higher utilization at the Gasan data center.
- AI Platform Strategy & Shareholder Returns:
- On July 6, KT unveiled its medium-term roadmap to become an ‘AX Platform Company’, detailing plans to invest approximately KRW 5.0T to construct an additional 1GW in AI data center capacity.
- Earnings are expected to return to a growth trajectory in 2H driven by the normalization of wireless profitability and enhanced AI infrastructure competitiveness.
- Enhanced shareholder returns are expected to continue, supported by the ongoing KRW 250.0B share buyback program and sustained annual dividend levels.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views KT as an enterprise navigating a transient operational pause caused by temporary promotional cost burdens and real estate high-base effects, while preparing for a second-half earnings recovery and reinforcing medium-term growth pillars through large-scale AI infrastructure expansion. This perspective places greater emphasis on long-term growth initiatives—notably the KRW 5.0T roadmap to build 1GW of AI data center capacity—and steady shareholder returns (including the KRW 250.0B share buyback program) rather than near-term quarterly profit moderation.
To verify whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key monitoring points include whether wireless service revenue and ARPU recover tangibly in 2H following the conclusion of the customer compensation program in July, how milestones and capex deployments progress for the planned 1GW AI data center buildout (~KRW 5.0T), and the execution of the KRW 250.0B share buyback alongside full-year dividend distributions. Relevant updates can be verified through upcoming 2Q earnings releases, subsequent quarterly IR presentations, and periodic corporate filings.
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