Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Yu-ak Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 170,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Full-year 2026 operating profit is projected to reach KRW 120.2T (+181% YoY), driven by upward revisions to NAND blended ASP forecasts boosting NAND operating profit to KRW 20.1T and expanding HBM shipments to ASIC clients and NVIDIA Rubin.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Sector Top Pick maintained, Target Price upgraded to KRW 170,000 (Current price as of January 5, 2026: KRW 138,100)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 9.4x, P/B 1.79x, ROE 20.9%, EV/EBITDA 1.9x, Dividend Yield (25E) 2.4%
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 14,766 (YoY +137.3%), BPS (25E) KRW 64,637
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2023: Revenue KRW 258.94T, Operating Profit KRW 6.57T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 14.47T
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 330.93T, Operating Profit KRW 42.85T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 41.78T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 435.84T (KRW 435.8T in text, YoY +32%), Operating Profit KRW 120.23T (KRW 120T in text, YoY +181%, OPM 27.6%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 97.56T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2026 NAND Upward Revisions & Pricing:
- Full-year 2026 NAND blended ASP growth revised up significantly from +15% YoY to +49% YoY
- NAND division operating profit forecast raised from KRW 6.5T to KRW 20.1T (KRW 20T in summary, YoY +2,515%)
- Following sharp wafer price gains in 4Q25, 1Q26 eSSD and UFS module prices are projected to surge +25~35% QoQ, with potential for further price increases due to constrained industry supply in 1H26
- HBM Shipments Projected to Triple in 2026:
- HBM shipments to major ASIC customers start expanding in 1Q26, with shipments for NVIDIA Rubin ramping up in earnest from 2Q26
- 2026 HBM Division Forecast: Bit shipments projected at 11.1B Gb (+212% YoY) and revenue at KRW 26.4T (+197% YoY)
- Driven by yield enhancements and volume expansion, HBM operating profit is projected to surge +470% YoY, leading consolidated growth
- Valuation & Multiple Expansion Drivers:
- Share price momentum supported by NAND pricing beats and upward revisions to HBM sales projections
- Potential for multiple expansion driven by capacity expansion at Pyeongtaek Fab 5 and Taylor Fab, new foundry client/product acquisitions, and evolving shareholder return expectations
- Stock remains the most undervalued among the top 3 DRAM manufacturers, supporting differentiated upside momentum
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as an enterprise poised to achieve KRW 120.2T in 2026 operating profit (+181% YoY), propelled by a strong turnaround in NAND (operating profit projected at KRW 20.1T) amid eSSD/UFS pricing surges and supply constraints, alongside a tripling of annual HBM shipments through expanding sales to ASIC clients and NVIDIA Rubin. This perspective places primary emphasis on the easing of conservative market sentiment toward NAND, a +470% YoY surge in HBM operating profit driven by yield improvements, and the stock’s pronounced valuation discount relative to global DRAM peers coupled with foundry/capacity catalysts.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether 1Q eSSD/UFS module ASP surges (+25~35% QoQ) and full-year NAND operating profit (KRW 20.1T) are realized, whether NVIDIA Rubin shipments ramp up in 2Q26 to achieve 11.1B Gb in HBM bit shipments and KRW 26.4T in HBM revenue, and whether capacity expansions (Pyeongtaek Line 5 / Taylor fab) and new foundry customer wins progress as scheduled. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
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