Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Yu-ak Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 200,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Full-year 2026 operating profit is revised upward to KRW 170T (+290% YoY) and 1Q26 operating profit to KRW 31T (+55% QoQ), supported by upgraded commodity DRAM/NAND ASP growth forecasts and supply constraints from advanced node transitions.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Sector Top Pick maintained, Target Price upgraded to KRW 200,000 (Current price as of January 22, 2026: KRW 152,300)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 7.7x, P/B 1.87x, ROE 27.1%, EV/EBITDA 1.5x, Dividend Yield (25E) 2.4%
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 19,797 (YoY +239.2%), BPS (25E) KRW 64,245
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2023: Revenue KRW 258.94T, Operating Profit KRW 6.57T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 14.47T
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 332.79T, Operating Profit KRW 43.57T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 39.19T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 497.49T (KRW 500T in text, YoY +49%), Operating Profit KRW 170.01T (KRW 170T in text, YoY +290%, OPM 34.2%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 130.81T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Outlook (Anticipated Consensus Beat):
- Projected Revenue of KRW 111T (+19% QoQ) and Operating Profit of KRW 31T (+55% QoQ), beating consensus (Revenue KRW 104T, Operating Profit KRW 27.6T)
- Commodity DRAM and NAND ASP projected to jump +45% QoQ and +50% QoQ, respectively
- Market Drivers: DRAM node transitions (1a, 1b → 1c nm), Gen-9 NAND migration, and surging demand for eSSD and server DRAM favorably position memory pricing negotiations
- 1Q26 Operating Profit by Division: DS KRW 29T (jumping from KRW 17T in 4Q25, +76% QoQ), SDC KRW 0.4T (-74% QoQ), MS/NW KRW 2.0T (+3% QoQ), VD/DA loss of KRW 0.3T (loss continues)
- 2026 Full-Year Forecast Upgrades & ASP Assumptions:
- Full-year 2026 blended ASP growth projections raised from +78% YoY to +106% YoY for commodity DRAM, and from +50% YoY to +91% YoY for NAND
- Surging commodity DRAM pricing and profitability favorably influence HBM4 price discussions, prompting upward revisions to HBM4 pricing and margin assumptions
- Foundry/System LSI division projected to post an annual operating loss around KRW 4T, with potential for loss reduction driven by 8-inch foundry market recovery and rising 12-inch advanced fab utilization
- Valuation & Share Price Drivers:
- Momentum supported by commodity memory price hikes, HBM4 price upgrades, and foundry recovery prospects
- Valuation remains the lowest among the top 3 global DRAM manufacturers, supporting differentiated share price performance
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a memory-driven growth enterprise poised to achieve KRW 31T in 1Q26 operating profit and KRW 170T in FY26 operating profit, propelled by upward revisions to commodity memory ASPs (DRAM +106% YoY, NAND +91% YoY) and enhanced pricing power in HBM4 amid supply constraints from 1c DRAM and Gen-9 NAND migrations. This perspective places primary emphasis on pricing leverage across HBM4 negotiations created by surging commodity memory profitability and the stock’s pronounced valuation discount relative to global DRAM peers, which outweighs near-term operating losses in consumer hardware (VD/DA) and non-memory divisions.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether realized 1Q consolidated operating profit (KRW 31T) and DS division operating profit (KRW 29T) meet forecasts, whether full-year DRAM (+106% YoY) and NAND (+91% YoY) ASP growth is achieved, and whether HBM4 contract terms and non-memory loss reductions via higher fab utilization progress as expected. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR materials, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
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