Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Seona Kim (RA: Changkeun Yoo)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 580,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Execution of a USD 579 Million exclusive licensing agreement with Biogen brings Q1 cumulative upfront payments to ~KRW 59.5 Billion (combining GSK and Biogen), supported by sequential catalysts including April J-code rollout and early June PGR rulings.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price (12M) KRW 580,000 (Maintained) (Closing price as of March 25, 2026: KRW 358,500)
- Market Data: KOSDAQ Index 1,159.55pt / Market Cap KRW 19.19 Trillion (Market Cap Weight 3.00%) / Shares Outstanding 53,533,800 / 60-Day Average Trading Volume 726.7 Thousand Shares / 60-Day Average Trading Value KRW 30.12 Billion / Foreign Ownership 14.13% / 52-Week High KRW 559,000, Low KRW 317,500 / Major Shareholders: Soonjae Park and 4 affiliates 20.37%, Inwoo Hyung and 2 affiliates 5.09%
- Annual Financial Forecast (Hana Securities Estimates):
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 202.1 Billion (+96.4% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 114.8 Billion (+352.0% YoY, OPM 56.8%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 121.1 Billion, Net Profit KRW 94.6 Billion, EPS KRW 1,757 (+50.04% YoY), BPS KRW 7,364, PER 255.83x, PBR 61.04x, ROE 28.25%, EV/EBITDA 201.18x
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 471.2 Billion (+133.2% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 308.2 Billion (+168.5% YoY, OPM 65.4%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 307.0 Billion, Net Profit KRW 246.0 Billion, EPS KRW 4,561 (+159.59% YoY), BPS KRW 11,925, PER 78.60x, PBR 30.06x, ROE 47.42%, EV/EBITDA 64.24x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Exclusive Biogen Licensing Agreement & Cumulative Q1 Upfront Inflows:
- On March 25, entered into an exclusive license agreement with Biogen International GMBH (CH) to develop and commercialize subcutaneous (SC) formulations for two biopharmaceutical assets.
- Total contract value stands at USD 579 Million (~KRW 867.5 Billion, based on 1,498.3 KRW/USD), comprising an initial upfront payment of USD 20 Million (~KRW 30.0 Billion, with an additional USD 10 Million upon second asset designation) and development/commercial milestones of USD 549 Million (~KRW 822.6 Billion), averaging ~USD 289.5 Million per asset.
- Combined with the GSK transaction in January, non-refundable upfront fees secured in Q1 alone reach approximately USD 40 Million (~KRW 59.5 Billion).
- Target Candidate Analysis (Estimates) & Expansion Scope:
- Hana Securities highlights Biogen’s Phase 3 pipeline assets—Dapirolizumab pegol (DZP, Phase 3 for SLE, data readout in 2028) and Felzartamab (Phase 3 for AMR and IgA nephropathy, data readout in 2027; AMR market estimated at USD 2 Billion)—as primary potential candidates.
- For Alzheimer’s therapy LEQEMBI, ALT-B4 could potentially be utilized to develop a single high-dose subcutaneous induction formulation (500mg) to complement its approved maintenance regimen.
- Sequential Near-Term Catalysts:
- 1) Verification of Keytruda Qlex prescription acceleration in mid-May following permanent US J-code implementation in April.
- 2) Conversion of the option agreement signed on December 26, 2025 into a definitive license.
- 3) Final written decision expected around June 2 from the US PTAB regarding Halozyme’s PGR proceeding (favorable outlook for MSD).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Alteogen as a drug delivery platform company that has fulfilled its partnering commitments by executing consecutive licensing deals with GSK in January and Biogen in March (securing ~KRW 59.5 Billion in cumulative Q1 upfronts). The overarching perspective prioritizes continued upfront and milestone opportunities from additional licensing deals, the commercial acceleration of Keytruda Qlex post-J-code implementation, and the upcoming sequence of major catalysts—including the early June PGR ruling—over near-term market debates regarding royalty rates.
To verify whether this investment thesis progresses as expected, investors should primarily monitor the official confirmation of Biogen’s 2 licensed targets and the additional USD 10 Million receipt upon second asset selection, US Keytruda Qlex prescription trends tracking in mid-May post-J-code rollout, the US PTAB’s PGR final ruling around June 2, and the definitive conversion of the December 2025 option deal within the year. These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, regulatory filings on DART/KRX, and global partner pipeline updates.
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