Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Jaewon Jeong
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 2,200,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Pure-CDMO valuation re-rating following the Bioepis spinoff and annual orders surpassing KRW 6.8 Trillion, reinforced by structural tailwinds from the US Biosecure Act and Plant 6 expansion expectations.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: Buy (Maintained) / Target Price (12M) KRW 2,200,000 (Upgraded from KRW 1.40 Million) (Target enterprise value of KRW 103.1 Trillion derived via DCF, factoring in the share count reduction from 71 Million to 46 Million shares post-spinoff; upside potential of 16.7% based on the January 8, 2026 closing price of KRW 1,885,000)
- Market Data: Capital Stock KRW 178.0 Billion / Shares Outstanding 46.29 Million / Market Cap KRW 87.26 Trillion / Foreign Ownership 12.7% / 52-Week High KRW 1,965,000, Low KRW 991,000
- Annual Financial Forecast (K-IFRS Consolidated Summary):
- 2025E (Table Summary): Revenue KRW 4.53 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.10 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.57 Trillion, EPS KRW 22,111, BPS KRW 175,194, PER 85.3x, PBR 10.8x, ROE 13.5%, EV/EBITDA 32.2x
- 2026E (Report Body Forecast): Revenue KRW 5.12 Trillion (+13.0% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 2.32 Trillion (+10.6% YoY, OPM 45.4%)
- 2026E (Table Summary): Revenue KRW 5.12 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.32 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.75 Trillion, EPS KRW 24,629, BPS KRW 199,695, PER 76.5x, PBR 9.4x, ROE 13.1%, EV/EBITDA 28.8x
- 2027E (Table Summary): Revenue KRW 6.28 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.84 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 2.14 Trillion, EPS KRW 30,111, BPS KRW 229,678, PER 62.6x, PBR 8.2x, ROE 14.0%, EV/EBITDA 23.8x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Q4 2025 Earnings Preview & Order Book Expansion:
- Consolidated Q4 revenue is projected at KRW 1.26 Trillion (+32.3% YoY) with operating profit at KRW 557.4 Billion (+77.1% YoY, OPM 44.3%), smoothly meeting market consensus estimates (Revenue KRW 1.25 Trillion, OP KRW 549.3 Billion).
- Annual new order volume expanded from KRW 5.5 Trillion in 2024 to KRW 6.8 Trillion in 2025, securing robust medium-term revenue visibility.
- Plant 5 (operations initiated in April 2025) is progressing through its ramp-up phase smoothly; full commercial recognition is expected from Q2 2027, with initial revenue recognition starting in H2 2026.
- Biosecure Act Enactment & US Footprint Integration:
- Enactment of the US Biosecure Act (included in the NDAA in December 2025) will lead to an official designation of restricted biotechnology entities within one year.
- Despite the 2032 grace period for existing contracts, global pharma companies are anticipated to prioritize non-Chinese CDMOs for newly developed drug candidates.
- Secured an agreement to acquire a US manufacturing site for approximately KRW 400 Billion, executing preemptive strategic positioning in the evolving CDMO landscape.
- Plant 6 Roadmap & JP Morgan Healthcare Conference Catalysts:
- Given the target completion timeline of 2027, formal communication regarding the groundbreaking schedule of Plant 6 is highly likely within the year.
- Upcoming presentations at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (JPMHC) are expected to detail corporate blueprints for Plant 6, Bio Campus 2, and new modality expansions such as ADCs.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Biologics as an unencumbered, pure-play global CDMO uniquely positioned to capture massive valuation re-rating following the corporate spinoff of Samsung Bioepis and structural market share gains from the US Biosecure Act. The overarching perspective places strategic priority on the DCF valuation re-rating to KRW 103.1 Trillion (reflecting a reduced share count of 46 Million shares) and aggressive forward capacity commitments—including the KRW 400 Billion US site acquisition and Plant 6 construction—over backward-looking quarterly comparisons.
To verify whether this investment thesis progresses as expected, investors should primarily monitor the inflow of large-scale new contracts following the Biosecure Act designation list release, initial commercial revenue recognition from Plant 5 in the second half of 2026, the operational integration of the KRW 400 Billion US facility, and the formal groundbreaking announcement for Plant 6 within the year. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, and regulatory filings on DART/KRX.
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