Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Seungmin Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 2,100,000 (Lowered)
Core Momentum : Despite lowering the target price due to adjusted Plant 5 utilization timing and broader CDMO sector valuation multiple compression, robust earnings growth is expected driven by full utilization of Plants 1–4 and expansion into peptide CDMO.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY rating maintained; Target Price lowered to KRW 2,100,000 (from KRW 2,300,000).
- Valuation Methodology: Applied a target EV/EBITDA of 33x (down from 35x) to the 2027E EBITDA present value of KRW 2.851 trillion (vs. previous 2028E PV of KRW 3.048 trillion). Target multiple reflects a 50% premium over Lonza’s 5-year historical average.
- Financial Forecast Summary (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2024: Revenue KRW 3.497 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.321 trillion (OPM 37.8%), Net Profit KRW 1.083 trillion.
- 2025: Revenue KRW 4.557 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.069 trillion (OPM 45.4%), Net Profit KRW 1.784 trillion.
- 2026(E): Revenue KRW 5.475 trillion (+20% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 2.367 trillion (+14% YoY, OPM 43.2%), Net Profit KRW 1.948 trillion, EPS KRW 42,083, P/E 36.1x, P/B 5.7x, ROE 23.1%.
- 2027(E): Revenue KRW 6.134 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.610 trillion (OPM 42.5%), Net Profit KRW 2.152 trillion, EPS KRW 46,497, P/E 32.6x, P/B 4.9x, ROE 20.5%.
- 2028(E): Revenue KRW 7.061 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 3.110 trillion (OPM 44.0%), Net Profit KRW 2.637 trillion, EPS KRW 56,966, P/E 26.6x, P/B 4.1x, ROE 20.5%.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Provisional Results Review:
- Revenue reached KRW 1.3209 trillion (+30% YoY, +5% QoQ) and Operating Profit reached KRW 586.4 billion (+23% YoY, +1% QoQ, OPM 44.4%), with EBITDA margin at 52.9%, in line with consensus.
- Growth was supported by continuous full utilization across Plants 1–4, optimized changeover operations, and favorable FX conditions (KRW/USD quarterly average of 1,501).
- Margins contracted slightly due to upfront costs associated with PPQ batch production at Plant 5 and Rockville operations.
- Labor dispute-related disruption impacted ~20 batches (worth KRW 150 billion), which will be recognized in 3Q26, resulting in limited annual impact.
- Second-Half & Full-Year Outlook:
- 2H26 expected contributions include KRW 126.9 billion from Plant 5 and KRW 246.8 billion from Rockville.
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance maintained at +20% YoY, with revenue recognition weighted heavily toward 4Q following moderate 3Q growth.
- Mid-to-Long Term Drivers & Catalysts:
- Full ramp-up timing assumption for Plant 5 adjusted to 2029 (from 2028) based on recent order pace.
- Potential estimate and target price upside remains if non-binding orders transition into binding agreements.
- Plant 6 investment decision is anticipated to align with additional order placements for Plant 5.
- Peptide CDMO business integration is scheduled for financial reflection starting in 2027 following transaction closing.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Biologics not simply as a company experiencing temporary order pacing adjustments, but as a premier global CDMO expanding its growth pillars into Rockville and peptide CDMO modalities while maintaining solid full-utilization across its core production base. The perspective realistically reflects peer valuation de-rating and recalibrated Plant 5 ramp-up schedules while emphasizing superior profitability and structural scalability compared to global competitors.
To determine whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include tracking the progress of Plant 5 commercial production, the actual conversion rate of disclosed non-binding orders into binding contracts, and the closing of the peptide CDMO acquisition alongside its earnings contribution visibility starting in 2027. These variables can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, and regulatory filings on DART.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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