Brokerage : Hanwha Investment & Securities
Analyst : Yong-wook Lee
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 820,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Embarking on a sequential quarterly turnaround across all segments starting in 2026, while securing medium- to long-term earnings visibility toward 2028 and beyond via major new order wins from Hyundai/Kia, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 820,000 (Raised)
- Market Data (As of 2026-04-28): Current Price KRW 680,000 (Upside Potential 20.6%), Market Cap KRW 54.80 Trillion, Shares Outstanding 80,586 Thousand, Foreign Ownership 25.7%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025 → 2026E → 2027E):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.49 Trillion → KRW 19.96 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion → KRW -54.0 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 1.74 Trillion (Turnaround)
- EBITDA: KRW 381.0 Billion → KRW 2.39 Trillion → KRW 4.22 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -649.0 Billion → KRW 327.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.55 Trillion
- EPS: KRW -8,059 → KRW 4,232 (Turnaround) → KRW 20,115
- ROE: -3.2% → 1.5% → 6.9%
- PER / PBR: -84.4x / 2.6x → 160.7x / 2.6x → 33.8x / 2.4x
- EV/EBITDA: 169.2x → 27.4x → 15.2x
- Net Debt: KRW 9.06 Trillion → KRW 10.26 Trillion → KRW 8.99 Trillion
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Review: Revenue reached KRW 3.6 Trillion and Operating Loss stood at KRW -156.6 Billion (Loss of KRW -236.1 Billion excluding AMPC), beating consensus (Operating Loss KRW -257.6 Billion). Driven by client compensation, robust small battery shipments (tabless, BBU, power tools), partial utilization recovery at the Hungarian plant, and initial European shipments from the STLA JV recognizing AMPC.
- 2Q26 Earnings Outlook: Projected Revenue of KRW 3.7 Trillion and Operating Loss of KRW -73.3 Billion (Loss of KRW -151.5 Billion excluding AMPC). Despite base effects from 1Q compensation, quarterly recovery remains distinct backed by volume shipments for the Kia EV2 and the scheduled launch of the Hyundai Ioniq 3 in 2H26. ESS is set to rebound on US sales and domestic project ramp-ups, while small batteries and electronic materials maintain positive momentum.
- Medium- to Long-Term Order Momentum & Visibility:
- Customer Diversification: Overcoming past client churn concerns by commencing prismatic EV supply to Hyundai/Kia in 2026, followed by planned shipments to Mercedes-Benz (prismatic) and BMW (46-series) by 2028.
- North American LFP Visibility: The STLA JV LFP lines scheduled for mass production in 2027 are believed to have secured most of the expected volumes for the initial 2–3 years, with additional European project potential upon further IAA formalization.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a battery manufacturer moving past historical client concentration risks and embarking on a multi-year recovery phase, reinforced by new platform wins across global OEMs (Hyundai/Kia, Mercedes-Benz, BMW) and a diversified product portfolio (prismatic, 46-series, LFP). This perspective highlights the initiation of a sequential, company-wide operational recovery in 2026 and the strengthening of long-term contract visibility toward 2028, rather than focusing on quarterly margin swings caused by non-recurring client compensation.
To evaluate the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring variables include the sequential recovery of automotive battery revenue driven by volume rollouts for the Kia EV2 and Hyundai Ioniq 3, commercial readiness of the expected volume pipeline at the STLA JV LFP line ahead of 2027 production, and concrete execution timelines for upcoming supply contracts with Mercedes-Benz (prismatic) and BMW (46-series). These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR releases, and statutory regulatory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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