Brokerage : Hana Securities Analyst : Kim Hyun-soo, Hong Ji-won (RA) Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained) Target Price : KRW 667,000 (Lowered)
Core Momentum : Following its return to operating profitability in Q2 after seven quarters, Samsung SDI is set to sustain underlying core earnings growth into the second half, driven by full-scale North American ESS ramp-up and a turnaround in small battery operations.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), 12-Month Target Price KRW 667,000 (Lowered; derived by applying a historical 2021–2023 24M Fwd average P/E of 24x to 2028 estimated controlling net profit, targeting KRW 54 Trillion market cap)
- Current Stock Price: KRW 358,500 (as of July 30, 2026)
- Market & Equity Data: KOSPI 5,593.56 pt, Market Cap KRW 28.89 Trillion, Total Shares Outstanding 80.59 Million, Foreign Ownership 26.41%
- Consensus Estimates:
- 2026: Revenue KRW 15.78 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 85.5 Billion, Net Profit KRW 486.2 Billion, EPS KRW 4,264, BPS KRW 288,040
- 2027: Revenue KRW 19.69 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.52 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.60 Trillion, EPS KRW 15,574, BPS KRW 307,109
- Financial Performance & Estimates Summary:
- 2024: Revenue KRW 16.59 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 363.3 Billion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 527.3 Billion, Net Profit KRW 599.3 Billion, EPS KRW 8,288, PER 29.24x, PBR 0.87x, EV/EBITDA 13.38x, ROE 3.13%, DPS KRW 973
- 2025: Revenue KRW 13.27 Trillion, Operating Loss KRW 1.72 Trillion, Pre-tax Loss KRW 1.36 Trillion, Net Loss KRW 649.5 Billion, EPS -KRW 8,325, PER -32.37x, PBR 1.02x, EV/EBITDA 314.44x, ROE -3.15%, DPS KRW 0
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 16.09 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 385.5 Billion (Turnaround to Profit), Pre-tax Profit KRW 1.20 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 818.6 Billion (Turnaround to Profit), EPS KRW 9,959, PER 36.00x, PBR 1.24x, EV/EBITDA 17.46x, ROE 3.65%, DPS KRW 0
- 2027(F): Revenue KRW 19.04 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.48 Trillion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.21 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.63 Trillion, EPS KRW 19,827, PER 18.08x, PBR 1.16x, EV/EBITDA 14.57x, ROE 6.72%, DPS KRW 0
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Review:
- Revenue reached KRW 3.8 Trillion (+19% YoY, +5% QoQ) with Operating Profit of KRW 203.8 Billion (turning profitable YoY/QoQ), marking the first profitable quarter in seven quarters since 3Q24.
- Mid-to-Large EV (41% revenue share): Revenue grew +7% QoQ on higher exports from the US Stellantis JV to Europe; profitability improved with higher AMPC subsidies (OPM -2.8% incl. AMPC, -8.2% excl. AMPC).
- ESS (22% revenue share): Revenue fell -8% QoQ due to domestic production deferrals into Q3 and labor reallocation, but segment profitability surged on one-off tariff refund recognition.
- Electronic Materials: Revenue climbed +13% QoQ driven by foldable smartphone OLED material demand, with OPM improving to 17.8% (+8.3%p QoQ) on higher high-margin mix.
- Company-wide OPM reached 5.4% (+9.8%p QoQ), 2.5% excluding AMPC, and -2.9% excluding the one-off tariff refund.
- 3Q26 Business Outlook:
- Projected revenue of KRW 4.0 Trillion (+31% YoY, +6% QoQ) and operating profit of KRW 99.4 Billion (turning profitable YoY, -51% QoQ), sustaining positive earnings.
- Full-scale operation of North American ESS lines is expected to drive ESS revenue up by over +30% QoQ.
- Small battery division is projected to return to profitability for the first time in two years on rising fab utilization.
- Underlying operating profit margin (excluding the one-off tariff refund) is forecast to improve by +2.5%p QoQ, from 0.0% in Q2 to 2.5% in Q3.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI not merely as experiencing a fleeting rebound driven by one-off tariff refunds, but as entering a genuine earnings expansion phase where underlying core operations are turning profitable through North American ESS expansion and small battery utilization recovery. Even after applying a lower valuation multiple to account for the post-2030 expiration of AMPC subsidies, the perspective emphasizes substantial upside potential, supported by simultaneous growth acceleration across both EV and ESS businesses.
To verify whether this investment thesis materializes going forward, key points to monitor include the successful commercial ramp-up of the North American ESS line in Q3 driving >30% QoQ revenue expansion, the confirmed quarterly turnaround of the small battery division, and the sustained expansion of underlying operating margins toward 2.5% post one-off eliminations. These operational milestones can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and regulatory filings (DART).
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