Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Yuanta Securities
Analyst : Seung-woong Lee
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 71,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Passing the final earnings hurdle in 4Q25 (one-off severance and appreciation package costs) leading to a sharp full-year 2026 operational turnaround (OP ~KRW 2.0 Trillion, DPS restoring to KRW 3,540), coupled with valuation recognition of the Anthropic equity stake (estimated at ~KRW 2.5 Trillion).
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Target Price maintained at KRW 71,000 (Based on the January 13, 2026 closing price of KRW 54,300; 31% upside potential), named Sector Top Pick
- 4Q25 Earnings Forecast (Preview):
- Consolidated Revenue: KRW 4.353 Trillion (~KRW 4.4 Trillion in text, -3.5% YoY, beating consensus of KRW 4.311 Trillion)
- Consolidated Operating Profit: KRW 84.0 Billion (KRW 84.4 Billion in text, -66.8% YoY, missing consensus of KRW 184.1 Billion)
- Standalone (SKT) Revenue: KRW 3.1 Trillion (-3.5% YoY), Standalone Operating Profit: KRW 88.9 Billion (-50.4% YoY)
- Earnings weighed down by customer appreciation package costs, membership discounts, and voluntary retirement expenses across SKT and SK Broadband exceeding 4Q24 levels (KRW 110.0 Billion)
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.791 Trillion (~KRW 17.8 Trillion in text, +3.9% YoY)
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.971 Trillion (~KRW 2.0 Trillion in text, +89.8% YoY, OPM 11.1%)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.252 Trillion
- 2026E ROE: 10.6% / PER: 9.3x / PBR: 1.0x / EV/EBITDA: 3.3x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- 4Q25 dividend expected to be omitted given FY2025 controlling net profit and 1H dividend payouts already distributed
- Projected FY2026 DPS restoring to the FY2024 baseline of KRW 3,540 alongside operational normalization
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Passing the 4Q Trough & Structural Cost Efficiencies:
- 4Q marks the bottom for earnings following membership revenue deductions and voluntary retirement outlays.
- Structural labor cost reductions (5.6% total headcount reduction across SKT and SK Broadband) will materialize in full force during 2026.
- Mobile Subscriber Turnaround:
- Benefiting from competitor penalty fee waivers, estimated net mobile subscriber additions of ~160,000 in 1Q26 will drive top-line recovery.
- Anthropic Valuation Re-Rating:
- SKT’s initial $100M investment (~KRW 130 Billion) in 2023 is estimated to have appreciated to ~$1.75B (~KRW 2.5 Trillion).
- Anthropic is pursuing a $10B funding round at a $350B valuation and has selected legal counsel to initiate IPO preparations (SKT’s current diluted stake estimated at ~0.5%).
- Re-rating of investment asset value combined with 2026 profit and dividend recovery highlights deep undervaluation in current share prices.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as an operator absorbing its final operational trough in 4Q25—impacted by appreciation package deductions and severance expenses—to unlock significant operating leverage in 2026, driven by a 5.6% workforce reduction and ~160,000 mobile net additions in 1Q26 to restore operating profit to ~KRW 2.0 Trillion and DPS to KRW 3,540. This perspective treats normalized dividend power (KRW 3,540) as fundamental downside support, while identifying the re-rating of Anthropic’s equity stake (~KRW 2.5 Trillion) ahead of its IPO preparations as the primary catalyst justifying the BUY rating and KRW 71,000 target price.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that post-retirement cost savings deliver the projected FY2026 KRW 1.97–2.0 Trillion operating profit, verifying that full-year DPS is formally restored to KRW 3,540 following the 4Q dividend suspension, and tracking 1Q26 mobile net additions (~160,000) alongside Anthropic’s capital raising and IPO milestones. These developments can be monitored via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR presentations, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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